Future studies of Iran's professional sports in the horizon of 2035 based on scenario

Subject Areas : Others

Tahsin Veisi ¹ , Mohammaf Nikravan ² , Hamid Foroghipour ³ , Mozafar Yektayar ⁴

1 - PhD Student of Sports Management Department, Borujerd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Borujerd , Iran.
2 - Assistant Professor of Sports Management Department, Borujerd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Borujerd , Iran.
3 - Assistant Professor of Sports Management Department, Borujerd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Borujerd , Iran.
4 - Associate Professor of Sports Management Department, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran

Received: 2023-05-09 Accepted : 2023-10-13 Published : 2023-10-13

Keywords: Scenario Writing, Future Research, Professional Sports, horizon 2035, Strategic Planning,

Abstract :

The purpose of the present study was to study the future of professional sports in Iran in the horizon of 2035 based on a scenario. In this study, a prospective study has been conducted with a scenario-based approach based on the intuitive logic method. To design the scenarios, the method of analyzing trends and uncertainties and Schwartz's eight-stage model of scenario planning were used. The participants of the present study included 31 Iranian professional sports experts who were selected based on the criteria of expertise and purposeful sampling. Data was collected through interviews and open questionnaires. To analyze the data in the interview analysis section using the coding method, to determine the importance and uncertainty from calculating the average index, and in the future research section using the structural analysis method and the balance analysis of the passing effect with the help of Micmac software and Scenario Wizard was used. Based on the findings, 14 main factors affecting the future of professional sports in Iran lead to the production of 4 key uncertainties: "government ownership in club affairs", "the nature of club management", "women's sports" and "capital". It was "foreign investment" that became the basis for the construction of two "prosperity" and "collapse" scenarios. As a result, it is suggested that in order to develop professional sports in Iran, the preparations for the ownership of clubs, attracting foreign investment, reducing government ownership in club attention to women's sports in the agenda of the planners. and the relevant managers are placed.