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Manuscript ID : JZPM-2008-3704 (R2) Visit : 103 Page: 55 - 76

10.30495/jzpm.2021.25606.3704

20.1001.1.22516735.1401.12.47.4.6

Article Type: Original Research

Futurism of regional development and Realizability of Land use planning Country (Case study: Khorasan Razavi province)

Subject Areas : Regional Planning

Mahdi Javanshiri 1 , Sirus Nabiuni 2 , Muslim Namdarzadeh 3

1 - PhD in Geography and Rural Planning, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran.
2 - PhD in Climatology, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Iran.
3 - PhD student in Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Iran.

Received: 2020-08-02 Accepted : 2021-01-20 Published : 2022-10-23

Keywords: Khorasan Razavi, Land use planning, Futurism, possibility, Scenario Wizard,

Abstract :

Attempting to have a national land use planning program has always faced many obstacles and challenges over the past 45 years. But futures research in land use planning with emphasis on key factors, drivers, and lack of regional development certainties, allows focusing on key drivers to overcome ambiguous problems. And mapped and managed the desired future. In the present study, with the participation of provincial administrators and university experts, the most important factors affecting the feasibility of planning in Khorasan Razavi province have been identified and finally scenarios affecting the feasibility of planning in the province have been developed. The research is descriptive-analytical in terms of purpose, application and type of research method. The method of data collection and information is library, documentary and survey (interview). By examining scientific sources, 107 factors affecting the feasibility of land use planning projects were identified, which were classified into 10 dimensions; Interviews were conducted with two groups and a total of 29 people, including managers of related organizations and academic experts. Data analysis is based on futures research techniques such as environmental scanning, structural analysis and interaction analysis (Micmac and Scenario wizard software). The results showed that 598 scenarios with poor compatibility and only 2 scenarios are in the state of strong and stable compatibility (zero incompatibility) (33.3% of possible scenarios are plausible). The first scenario, which is a positive-oriented scenario, has a total interaction score of 228 and a compatibility value of 6, while the second scenario, which indicates unfavorable conditions for the future of land management planning in Khorasan Razavi province, has a total interaction score of 163 and a compatibility value of 9. is. The third scenario also has a compatibility value of -1 and with a total score of 58 interaction can be one of the possible scenarios for the future of land management planning in Khorasan Razavi province.

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