Evaluating the role of climatic indicators in tourism development using ANP-Fuzzy technique (case study: Fars province)

Subject Areas : Regional Planning

بابک اجتماعی ¹ , ghasemali moghtaderi ² , hamideh mirzaei ³

1 - عضو هیات علمی
2 - Assistant Professor of Geography Department of Payam Noor University
3 - Master student of Payam Noor University

Received: 2023-08-10 Accepted : 2023-09-28 Published : 2024-02-20

Keywords: Fars province, Tourism, Fuzzy, Technique, Climatic Indicators,

Abstract :

Abstract  Tourism is a significant sector of the global economy that is highly influenced by climatic conditions. One of the key elements in the development of tourism in any region is having favorable climatic conditions and identifying desirable tourist destinations. Fars Province, due to its natural heritage, diverse climatic features, historical and cultural attractions, has great potential to boost the tourism industry. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine desirable tourism development zones based on climatic indicators. The present research method is descriptive-analytical. The Fuzzy-ANP technique and ARC GIS-Super Decision software were used to analyze the tourism development pattern in this province. The results of the evaluation of the study indicators show that the monthly average temperature index, with a weight of 0.239, has the most significant impact. The monthly average precipitation and relative humidity indexes have obtained the second and third positions of influence with values of 0.157 and 0.143, respectively. In the end, the assigned digital layers were combined using the Fuzzy Overlay operation and the summation function to determine the final value of each pixel based on the assigned weights. The calculated weight in the final map represents the classification of the regional climate comfort pattern of Fars Province. Using the classification of natural breaks, the final classification is divided into 5 classes, ranging from undesirable climate comfort to highly desirable climate comfort. The largest area of the province is assigned to zones with desirable potential (38.2). Undesirable tourism potential zones cover nearly 35% of the province's area, ranking second in this classification. In general, considering zones with very desirable and desirable tourism potential, nearly 45% of the area of Fars Province has excellent potential for tourism development. Counties located in the eastern, southeastern, northern, and northeastern parts of the province also have undesirable tourism climate comfort.   Extended Abstract   Introduction Tourism is one of the fastest-growing industries in the second half of the twentieth century. The tourism industry is often used as a key driver of economic growth in both developed and developing countries, contributing the most significant and rapid growth among various economic sectors. Factors influencing tourism include geographic location, topography, scenery, plant and animal cover, and climate, but it is the climate that determines the attractiveness of a tourism region. Unfortunately, like many other provinces in the country, Fars Province suffers from the phenomenon of centralization and spatial injustice. Several counties, particularly those close to the provincial center, face issues such as the lack of necessary facilities and services, unemployment, and high rates of migration. Many of the region's potentials, especially its tourism capacities, are underutilized due to lack of awareness, inadequate logical planning, and insufficient investment in various sectors, making them less recognized and often overlooked. What appears in Fars Province reflects an unfavorable image of inequality and underutilization of tourism potentials, especially in comparison to the national level, indicating that proper and rational utilization of the province's tourism sector has not been realized. In this regard, there is a need for a review and reorganization of this sector in all counties of the province to create a logical and balanced regional structure.   Methodology In terms of research methodology, this study is descriptive-analytical, which is practically applicable in tourism planning. To prepare climate indices affecting Fars Province's tourism, a documentary study method was used. A comparison between climate indices and their impact was made based on the opinions of 15 academic elites. The selection criteria for these elites included theoretical expertise, practical experience, willingness, research participation capability, and accessibility. Initially, spatial data were digitized, and then, based on the existing conditions and the factors under investigation, the indices were compared pairwise using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) model within the Super Decision software. Subsequently, data matching and analysis were conducted using the fuzzy logic model in the ARC GIS environment, and the final map for the development of tourism in Fars Province based on climate indices was extracted in the GIS environment.   Results and Discussion n this current study, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) technique has been used for prioritizing and evaluating climate indicators.The results of the evaluation of the study indicators show that the average monthly temperature index, with a weighted value of 0.239, has assigned itself the top rank of effectiveness. The average monthly precipitation and average relative humidity indices have respectively obtained the second and third ranks of effectiveness with values of 0.157 and 0.143.In the end, the digital layers with assigned weights have been combined using the Fuzzy Overlay operation and the summation function to determine the final value of each pixel based on the assigned weights. The calculated weight values in the final map categorize the regional climate comfort pattern in Fars province. Using natural break classification, the final classification is divided into 5 classes from undesirable climate comfort to very desirable climate comfort. The highest area of the province is allocated to areas with desirable tourism potential (38.2). Areas with undesirable tourism potential cover nearly 35% of the province's area, ranking next in this classification. In general, it can be said that considering areas with very desirable and desirable tourism potential, nearly 45% of Fars province has excellent potential for tourism development. Additionally, the results indicate that Shiraz city, part of Estahban, Marvdasht, and Sepidan counties, have the highest level of desirability for regional tourism comfort, which is specified in the final map with a blue color coding. The second position in terms of desirability for regional tourism comfort is held by Sepidan (north of the province), Fasa, Jahrom (central part of the province), Ghir and Karzin, Mehr, the southern part of Kazeron county, Farashband, Khonj (western part of the province), Garash and Lar (southern part of the province), which are marked in green in the classification map. Counties located in the eastern, southeastern, northern, and northeastern parts of the province such as Abadeh, Khorrambid, Eghlid, Bavanat (due to the cold climate in these areas), Neyriz, Darab, Zarrindasht, and parts of Laristan (extreme heat and low humidity) occupy the third position and are considered to have undesirable regional tourism comfort.   Conclusion Results of Tourism Classification in Fars Province Based on Climate Indicators: The results of tourism classification in Fars Province based on climate indicators demonstrate that Shiraz city, a part of Estahban, Marvdasht, and Sepidan counties, have the highest level of desirability for regional tourism comfort. Consequently, in these areas, several significant benefits can be realized. Firstly, they can create more motivation for environmental conservation. Secondly, these regions, based on their higher desirability for climate comfort, have better access to natural and economic resources, which can contribute to sustainable community development. Furthermore, this can aid in ensuring food security, poverty reduction, and maintaining the overall health of the community, all of which are aspects of sustainable development. The majority of the province's area is allocated to regions with desirable tourism potential (38.2). Areas with undesirable tourism potential cover nearly 35% of the province's area, ranking next in this classification. In general, it can be said that considering areas with very desirable and desirable tourism potential, nearly 45% of Fars Province has excellent potential for tourism development.Additionally, certain regions in the eastern, southeastern, northern, and northeastern parts of the province also possess undesirable regional tourism comfort. Therefore, for these areas, the following recommendations can be made:Cultural Tourism: In regions with unique historical and cultural significance, such as Firozabad, cultural and historical tours can be organized. Introducing historical sites and important cultural locations can attract tourists interested in history and culture.Rural Tourism: Many areas in the province boast picturesque rural landscapes and villages. Offering the experience of rural life for tourists, including stays in local homes, participation in daily rural activities, and sampling local foods and beverages, can be promoted.Environmental Tourism: In many areas of the province, there are medicinal plants and sensitive ecosystems that can be leveraged for promoting eco-tourism. Emphasizing environmental conservation and providing education on protection can attract tourists interested in the environment.Local Events Promotion: Hosting local festivals and events can increase tourist attraction. The introduction of local cuisines, music, handicrafts, and local traditions can be attention-grabbing, particularly in most of the province's villages.Hosting Events and Festivals: Gardens and green spaces are often utilized for hosting festivals, exhibitions, concerts, and various events that can create unique tourist attractions. Many cities in the province, including Qir and Karzin, Jahrom, and Sepidan, have gardens and, therefore, possess significant potential in this regard.

References:

References

1. Alizadeh, Mohammad et al. (2017), evaluation of tourism climate conditions of selected cities of Isfahan province based on tourism climate indicators, Geography and Regional Planning Scientific Research Quarterly, Year 9, Number 1, Winter 2017, pp. 43-55.[in Persian].http://doi.org/ 1001.1.22286462.1397.9.1.4.4


2. Ansari Qolanji, Roqyah (2018), studying the tourist climate and determining the appropriate tourism calendar in West Azarbaijan province, Master's thesis, Faculty of Literature and Social Sciences, Tabriz University. [in Persian]


3. Bien Gomez. M (2005). Weather, Climate and Tourism a Geography perpective, Annaks of Tourism research. Vol32, NO3, pp271-591. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2004.08.004


4. Bouden, andGhrab, Biau, Von Storch Hans and Wackernagel (2015). “Estimation of precipitation by Kriging”. in the EOF Journal of Climate, Vol.12.


5. Dadres Moghadam, Amir et al. (2021), the effect of climatic and economic factors on the tourism industry in the regions of Iran (using the method of dynamic ordinary least squares and generalized moment in the time period 2006-2018), natural environment, natural resources of Iran, volume 74, No. 1, Spring 1400, pp. 41-54[in Persian] http://doi.org/ 22059/JNE.2021.313379.2114


6. C.R.de, Scott. D and Boyle. G (2004). A New generation climate index for Tourism, Tourism climatology.


7. M and et al (2005). Climate change and inter national tourism: Asmulation study, Global Environmental changes 15.pp 253-266.


8. Esmaili, Fazlalah et al. (2017), measurement of climatic parameters with the approach of tourism development in rural and urban areas (case study: Gonbadkavos city), Iranian Natural Ecosystems Quarterly, year 9, number 2, consecutive 2017, pp. 127-144[inPersian].https://neijournal.nour.iau.ir/article_545893.html


9. Ferdowsi, Sajjad et al. (2016), study of tourism climate potentials of the southern shores of the Caspian Sea, Geographical Information Scientific Research Quarterly, Volume 26, Number 104, winter 2016. [In Persian]. https://www.sid.ir/paper/253242/fa


10. Golestani, Mitra et al. (2014), measuring climatic parameters with the aim of developing ecotourism (ecotourism) in Noor city, Newar Scientific and Promotional Journal, No. 90-91, Fall and Winter 2014. [in Persian]http://doi.org/30467/NIVAR.2015.32594


11. Hazarjaribi, Jafar (2011), Social security feeling from the perspective of tourism development, Journal of Geography and Environmental Planning, No. 2, pp. 121-143. [in Persian].http://doi.org/ 1001.1.20085362.1390.22.2.7.0


12. Hejrati, Mohammad Hossein et al. (2010), the capabilities of comfort climate, appropriate strategies for tourism development, case study: Khorasan Razavi, New Perspectives in Human Geography Quarterly, Year 4, Number 1. [in Persian] https://journals.iau.ir/article_673208.html


13. D & et al. (2002). Evalutiong natural Attractions for tourism. Annals of tourism Reserch, Vol20. NO. 2pp 422-438.


14. Karimi, Zahra et al. (2016), The potential effects of climate change on tourism in the southern coasts of Iran based on the climate information plan for tourism, geography and environmental planning, year 28, number 65, number 1, spring 2016. [in Persian].http://doi.org/  22108/GEP.2017.97874


15. Khoram Bakht, Ahmad Ali (2017), Analysis and zoning of climate effects in the development of rural tourism in Shahrtan Jahrom using TCI index, Natural Geography Quarterly, Year 11, Number 39, Spring 2017. [in Persian].http://doi.org/  1001.1.20085656.1397.11.39.6.8


16. Kovács, A., Németh, Á., Unger, J., & Kántor, N. (2017). Tourism climatic conditions of Hungary–present situation and assessment of future changes. IDŐJÁRÁS/QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 121(1), 79-99.


17. Manshizadeh, Rahmatullah (2005), Jahan Gardi, Tehran, Manshi Publications, second edition. [in Persian]


18. Matthews, Lindsay & et al (2021), Climate services for tourism: Insights from Caribbean Small Island Developing States, Climate Services, Volume 24, December 2021, 100262.


19. Matzarakis A. (2001), Heat stress in Greece. Internatinal Journal of Biometeorology, 41: 24-39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s004840050051


20. Matzarakis, A. (2004). Assessing climate for tourism purposes: Existing methods and climate, tourism and recreation tools for the thermal complex, In Proceedings of the First International Workshop on Climate, Tourism and Recreation, freiburg.


21. Mir Hosseini, Abolqasem (2016), evaluation and zoning of natural tourism comfort climate in Yazd province using GIS and tourism climate index (TCI), Geography (Regional Planning), year 7, number 1, pp. 101-115. [In Persian].http://doi.org/2 1001.1.22286462.1395.7.1.26.2


22. Mohammadi, Ranjbar, Firoz, Mohammadjani, Hashemi, & Taher Sadat. (2005). An analysis of the relationship between climate and tourism. Tourism Management Studies, 10(1), 129-148[in Persian] https://www.sid.ir/paper/465192/fa


23. Mora-Rivera, J., Cerón-Monroy, H., & García-Mora, F. (2019). The impact of remittances on domestic tourism in Mexico. Annals of Tourism Research, 76, 36-52 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2019.03.002


24. Munoz, C., Álvarez, A., & Baños, J. F. (2023). Modelling the effect of weather on tourism: does it vary across seasons?. Tourism Geographies, 25(1), 265-286. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1868019


25. Nazim Al-Sadat, Mohammad Jaafar, Majnouni Haris, Abolfazl (2007), Investigation of human comfort in different climatic conditions, a case study" cities of Shiraz, Bandar Abbas, Birjand and Ardabil, Environmental Journal, year 34, number 48, pp. 71-80. [In Persian] https://www.sid.ir/paper/2856/fa


26. Mohammadi, Hossein (2006), Applied Meteorology, Tehran University Press, first edition. [In Persian]


27. Mohammadi, Hossein et al. (2007), an analysis of the relationship between climate and tourism, Tourism Studies Quarterly, No. 10, pp. 129-147. [In Persian]


28. Papoli Yazdi, Mohammad Hossein, Saqaei, Mohammad (2006), Tourism, Tehran, Samt Publications. [In Persian]


29. Salighe, Mohammad and Beheshti-Ja'avid, Ibrahim (2014), zoning of seasonal tourism alternatives in Semirom city based on comparative analysis of dynamics and geochemical indicators, geography (Journal of Research and International Association of Geography Iran, New Year, Year 12, No. 41, Summer. [In Persian]


30. Scott D, Johnes B and Mac Boyle G (2004): Climate, Tourism and Recreation: A Bibliography. University of Waterloo Canada.


31. Scott, D.; Rutty, M.; Amelung, B. and Tang, M. (2016). An inter-comparison of the holiday climate index (HCI) and the tourism climate index (TCI) in Europe, Atmosphere, 7(6): 80.  https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos7060080


32. Shafghati, Mehdi (2019), effective climatic potentials for planning and development of the tourism industry in Gilan province, Geographical Sciences Applied Research Journal, year 20, number 56, Spring 2019, pp. 1-18. [In Persian] http://ensani.ir/fa/article/403729


33. Susanto, Jimmy & et al (2020), The impacts of climate variables and climate-related extreme events on island country’s tourism: Evidence from Indonesia, Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 276, 10 December 2020, 124204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124204


34. J and et al (2007). Could climate change have appositive impaction in potugels west tourism rigion coasts?. International confrance on climate impacts on Tourism Lisbon, 7-8 th, septamber.


35. Wang, Hongguo and et al (2022), Climatology and trend of tourism climate index over China during 1979–2020, Atmospheric Research, Volume 277, 15 October 2022, 106321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106321


36. Wang, Shi-jin & Zhou, Lan-yue (2019), Integrated impacts of climate change on glacier tourism, Advances in Climate Change Research, Volume 10, Issue 2, June 2019, Pages 71-79.


37. Yazdanpanah, Hojat Elah et al. (2013) study of climatic conditions for tourism development using TCI index (case example: East Azarbaijan province), Geography and Environmental Planning, year 24, serial 49, number 1, spring 2012. [In Persian].http://doi.org/ 1001.1.20085362.1392.24.1.8.3


38. Ziaei, Mahmoud, Bakhtiari, Arshin (2008), Kish Island tourism comfort climate index, selected articles of the 5th Persian Gulf Conference. [in Persian]