Investigation of Rainfall and Air Temperature Changes Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change (Case study: Shahrekord)

Subject Areas : hydrology

Zohre Izadi ¹ , Ali Heidar Nasrollahi ² , Bizhan Haghighati Borujeni ³

1 - Master student of irrigation and drainage engineering, Department of Water Engineering, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran
3 - Assistant professor, Soil and Water Research Department, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, shahrekord, Iran

Received: 2018-02-13 Accepted : 2018-05-29 Published : 2018-05-22

Keywords: Climate Change, LARS-WG model, Downscaling, Climate scenarios,

Abstract :

In this research outputs of the general circulation model HadCM3 under the three climatic change scenarios A1, B1 and A1B are downscaled using LARS-WG model in Shahrekord synoptic weather station and the results were evaluated for the base period (1971-1995) and the future periods 2011-2030 and 2046-2065 for weather parameters of temperature and precipitation. The results of prediction of the model in future periods indicate that the maximum and minimum temperatures increase for all months and scenarios in the study area compared to the base period. Accordingly, the maximum increase in maximum and minimum monthly temperatures was 3.62 and 3.55 °C, respectively, which was observed under the A1B scenario during 2046-2065. Although, the results of the model for the precipitation were very fluctuating and no specific order was observed. However, rainfall decreased in the vegetative seasons of the plants, especially in spring and April and May.