A Review Of Cross Impact Analysis Methods And An Introduction To the Correlation Logic Method

Subject Areas : Futurology

Ebrahim Hajiani ^{1 *} , Alireza Hemmati ^{2 *}

1 - هیات علمی(دانشیار) پژوهشکده تحقیقات راهبردی مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام تهران
2 - فراگیر دکتری آینده پژوهی، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات اجتماعی جهاد دانشگاهی تهران هیات علمی(مربی) دانشگاه علوم پزشکی تهران ،

Received: 2014-11-13 Accepted : 2015-01-18 Published : 2015-04-21

Keywords: Prediction, Cross Impact, Correlation, Driver Forces, Scenario,

Abstract :

Most of the futures study methods evaluate the concerning variables and drivers seperately to predict or examine the events. However, some times there is a need to analyze the event occurance probability in correlation with a series of predicted events. The Cross Impact Analysis method is the key to this problem. Requiring more complex statistical processing to achieve the results, the Cross Impact Analysis method, like the Delphi method, is based on the experts opinions. The main approach in this method is to determine the event occurance probability or various driver forces seperately and ask the experts opinions for the event occurance probability in case of other event occurances and their cross impact. In advanced methods of this analysis, discussed in this study, event occurance probability is reviewed in the chain of reasons between events. Thus, a matrix of the primary probabilities and conditional probabilities and directed event cross impact relations and driving forces is designed. The common methods of this analysis defines rules based on the two logic of probabilities and structures relations for the events impacts on each other. However, both methods are not used for the cross impacts. In this study, authors presented a new method of correlation logic to cover both positive and negative impacts of events on each other using a review on available methods of cross impact analysis. Cross impact analysis method usually leads to a scenario