Financial Trend Analysis under environmental changes
Subject Areas : Futurology
Foroozandeh Jafarzadehpoor
1
(Assistant Prof., Faculty of Social Science, Faculty of Social Science, Humanities and Social Science Institute)
Amir Nazemi
2
(Assistant Professor, Futures studies Dept., National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP))
Alireza Asadi
3
(Ph.D. Student in Futures Studies, Humanities and Social Science Institute, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author))
Keywords: Trend analysis, structural break, Delphi, Financial Market,
Abstract :
Trend analysis is an important part of futures studies that has been done by various methods. These methods of analysis is usually performed under continuity condition. If the changes occur outside the field of study that led to the discontinuation of the process, there will not be possible to predict based on statistical models. In other words, the gap caused by environmental changes are a cause of discontinuity therefor parameters of quantitative models that are designed to extrapolate trends, lose their effectiveness. In this paper, the issue of the discontinuity of financial market trend with regard to the environmental changes is studied and the semi-quantitative method to identify the breaks in the financial trends is provided. To do this, the Delphi method to identify the possibility of environmental changes and their impact on the trends is used. The results show that the three breaks has occurred in the trend of stocks of the power industry companies in Tehran exchange market.