Financial Market Forecasting Methods under Structural Break

Subject Areas : Futurology

Frozandeh Jafarzadehpour ¹ , Amir Nazemy ² , Alireza Asadie ³

1 - Assistant Prof., Faculty of Social Science, Faculty of Social Science, Humanities and Social Science Institute, Tehran, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor, Futures studies Dept., National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP)
3 - Ph.D. Student in Futures Studies, Humanities and Social Science Institute, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Athour) [e-mail]

Received: 2016-08-17 Accepted : 2017-09-12 Published : 2017-07-23

Keywords: Forecasting methods, forecasting failure, structural break, Financial Market, Stock Return,

Abstract :

Financial market forecasting particularly stock market forecasting is a considerable debate that confront to forecast failure and model break down when structural breaks in trends occur.  This paper discusses the modeling to predict stock return under structural breaks and investigate new approaches of forecasting in this condition. This study proposes a taxonomy for research area in forecasting under structural breaks to suggest further studies. We use literature survey as methodology of the research and categorizes the methods, models, and results of the recent researches in stock market forecasting. Consequently, it provides three categories of strategies to forecast stock return under structural breaks. First strategy, called economically motivated model restrictions, uses financial theories as signs to adjust the parameters of models in out-sample periods. Second strategy, known as regime shift, uses a Markov chain transition matrix to model structural breaks in time series. Third strategy applies mix of quantitative models and qualitative surveys to predict future of financial markets. The proposed strategies are applicable in Tehran stock exchange under uncertainty conditions.