The Recognition of the Investors Expectations Model in Iran, Emphasizing on the Case of Isfahan Province

Subject Areas : Futurology

M.R Sharif Azadeh ¹ (عضو هیئت علمی گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه)
M. Vaez Barzani ² (عضو هیئت علمی گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان)

Received: 2015-04-17 Accepted : 2015-04-17 Published : 1999-08-23

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Abstract :

Having examined the behavior of investors, economists have made numerously attempts to specify investments determinants and their various effects. A number relevant variables explaining investment rely on different expectations. Because of the crucial role of expectations on the investment behavior, it needs to be recognized as an appropriate conceptual framework for the Iranian Economy . Accordingly, there are two well- know specifications so –call adaptive and rational expectations. Based upon the evidence of reasoning logically as well as expenences obtained, however, each of them is specifically limited to the inadequency in nature. To realize the degree of investors rational expectations the present study conducts a theoritical framework being concerned with the observed behaviours. According to the significance of analyzing expectations over the post – revelutionary period, the model should be examined for a sample of private manufactured sectors (Plants) in the Isfahan Province during 1979-1996. Finally, regarding the shortage of information and the existence of stable trends, the study will conclude that investors rely on adaptive expections rather than rational expectations. Consequencies of this would be a good prediction power, systematic time errors, and heteroscedastic variances of errors.