An Impirical Investigation of the Effects of Financial Statement Analysis in Predicting Future Dividend of the Firm Member in Tehran Stick Exchange.

Subject Areas : Futurology

R.  Shabahang ¹ (ندارد)
F.  Heydarpour ² (ندارد)

Received: 2015-01-25 Accepted : 2015-01-25 Published : 2004-12-21

Keywords: Financial statement analysis, Financial ratios, Prediction of dividend, dividend,

Abstract :

Prediction  of  dividend  is  an  important  factor  for  decision  making. Financial  statement  analysis  can  used  for  divided  prediction . Decision  makers  usually  consider  earnings  as  a  signal  for  dividend  figure . In this  research  two  hypothesis  are  investigated :  1) There  is  a  relation  between  financial  variables / ratios ( other  than  earning  figure  alone ) and  dividend  and 2) financial  variables / ratios  are  useful  for  prediction  of  dividend  by  using  model . For  that ,194  firms  member in  Tehran  Stock  Exchange  were  investigated .Methodology  of  research  is  correlation . Dependent  variable  is  dividend  and  independent  variables  are  24  financial  variables / rations . At  first , the  model  was  derived  by  using  1375-1380  data  and  the  it’s  fitness  was  evaluated . 8 variables  was  remained  in  model . For  more  confidence  those  process  were  done  with  1375-1379  data  and  dividends  of  1380  were  predicted .  It  showed  about  75  percent  of  real  dividends  in  1380  were  between  upper / lower  limit  at  95  percent  level . Then  the  research  hypothesis  were  confirmed . The  non – earning / non-dividend  variables  are  debit  to total  assets , equity . inventory  to  assets , debit  and  share  price  before  stockholder’s  meeting . Other  variables  are  EPS , ROI , net  sales  to equity.