Identifying and Analyzing Key Success Factors (KSF) in foresight Studies by using: Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM)
Subject Areas : Futurology
سید عباس ابراهیمی
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مظفر ناصری طاهری
2
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حسین دامغانیان
3
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عظیم زارعی
4
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Keywords:
Abstract :
Background:Foresight practically; relying on the interaction between a wide network of stakeholders and experts; is pursue shaping a favorable image of the future. The core element of this paper focuses on:What are the most prominent factors which play a fundamental role in foresight projects successful functioning. Objects: Identifying:(1)the critical elements in Successful foresight and,(2)prominent pitfalls and challenges in the foresight process. Methodology: The first step:Through investigating of library resources,(80)causes identified as effective factors in the foresight process. The second step: These factors in order to assess the face and content validity were presented to (10)experts in the field of foresight. The next:A questionnaire; with a fuzzy cognitive map approach; inclusive of (30)essential factors was designed and between(8) experts distributed. Ultimately:By using FCMAPPER and Excell Software Data analyzed. Findings:In terms of input index (Influence of other factors) three concepts;"using appropriate methodology and method of foresight", "realistic making decisions" and "implementing policies and actions"respectively are most influential factors. In terms of output index (effective of other factor) three concepts:"using appropriate methodology and method of foresight","the clarity of the rational principles and the logical reasons for performing foresight for those involved in foresight "and "most prominent futurists participate in the foresight project"sequentially are most effective factors. Conclusion:The most fundamental factor in more realistic making decisions and proposed policies and actions in consequence of implementing foresight project depends on the deepening and updating of knowledge of the country's future prospects in the field of familiarization with the latest methodology and modern methods of foresight.