A Future Study on Impact of Convergent Technologies on Ideal Model of Iranian Administrative System
Subject Areas : FuturologyHedayat Kargar Shouroki 1 , Sayed Habibollah Mirghafoori 2 , Habib Zare Ahmadabadi 3 , Ali Mohammad Soltani 4
1 - section of Industrial Management- Department of Economics, Management & Accounting- Yazd University- Yazd- Iran
2 - Faculty of Economics, Management & Accounting, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
3 - Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, Management & Accounting, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
4 - Assistant Professor, Technology Studies Institute, Tehran, Iran
Keywords: Foresight, Administrative system, NBIC, Grounded Theory, Social Network Analysis, Convergent Technologies,
Abstract :
Background: The administrative system, as one of the key development infrastructures, is itself influenced by other subsystems, including the science and technology system; and one of the potentially influential streams on administrative system is "technological convergence" or "convergent technologies". Objective: The present study was designed with the aim of discovering the appropriate response to this fundamental question: "How will be the impact of converging technologies on the future of Iranian ideal administrative system?" Methods: In this qualitative and descriptive research, at first, for designing a model of Iranian ideal administrative system, 10 superiority legal documents were analyzed and codified by grounded theory approach. Subsequently, the views of Iranian experts in convergent technologies about the possible impacts of these technologies on administrative system were collected through interviews and analyzed using social network analysis technique and UCINET software. Findings: Main Dimensions of Iranian Ideal Administrative System were identified in elements such as inputs, infrastructures, resources, processes, outputs and feedback, while the impact of converging technologies on these six dimensions was confirmed with a density of 0.87. The highest value of internal (beeing affected) and external (affecting) Degree Centrality is related to "processes" and "robotics and artificial intelligence" respectively, also "human-machine interafaces" has the highest value of the betweennes centrality indicator. Conclusion: All six dimensions of Iranian ideal administrative system will be heavily affected by convergent technologies and it is necessary to establish suitable mechanisms (such as education, regulations, credits, etc.) to effectively deal with this future in different parts of the system.
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