An Analysis of the Energy Consumption Status in the Framework of Future Study Case Study: Tabriz City

Subject Areas : Futurology

Abolfazl Ghanbari ¹ (Associate Professor, Dept. of Geographical Research, University of Tabriz. Email: [e-mail])
Musa Vaezi ² (M. A. in Land Use Planning, University of Tabriz.)
Zahra Amjadi ³ (M. A. Land Use Planning, University of Tabriz.)

Received: 2018-01-30 Accepted : 2018-09-24 Published : 2018-11-22

Keywords: Prediction, Energy consumption, Future Studies, Tabriz County,

Abstract :

Background: The increasing importance of energy resources in the formation and growth of economic processes, as well as the need to exploit these resources, based on environmental considerations and sustainable economic and social development, highlights the issue of identifying and Future Study of the factors affecting energy consumption. Objective: The present research studies the status of energy consumption in Tabriz city in the framework of Foresight. Methods: This research is applied and descriptive-analytic. The Delphi method and the group of experts have been used to identify the factors affecting energy consumption. After analyzing the factors, 40 factors were identified and selected as influential factors. Using MICMAC software, the interactive effects analysis method has been identified. Finally, out of 40 factors, 16 main factors were selected as effective key proponents. Findings: Based on the data included in the questionnaire and the Wizard scenario software analysis, there are five strong scenarios, of which two scenarios are desirable conditions, a scenario of critical conditions, and two other scenarios of intermediate conditions. 13 scenarios with high adaptability and 292 poor scenarios. Initial studies of 13 scenarios show that the relative relativity of undesirable numbers is favorable on desired conditions. Apart from a few limited scenarios that have the characteristics that are desirable and progressing, the rest of the scenarios do not have a good future. Conclusion: The main result of this research is that the future energy consumption situation in Tabriz will continue to be a continuation of the current situation with an unfavorable and unfavorable situation.