Structural Modeling of the Factors Affecting the Formation of a Currency Derivatives Market in the Iran Mercantile Exchange

Subject Areas :

Hooman Samadzadeh ¹ , Parviz Saeedi ^{2 *} , مریم بخارائیان ³

1 - Department of Finance, Ali.C. Islamic Azad University, Aliabad Katoul, Iran.
2 - Department of Management and Accounting, Ali.C. Islamic Azad University, Aliabad Katoul, Iran (Corresponding Author).
3 - Department of Accounting, Ali.C. Islamic Azad University, Aliabad Katoul, Iran.

Received: 2025-07-21 Accepted : 2025-09-21 Published : 2025-09-27

Keywords: Currency Derivatives Market, Currency Risk Hedging, Financial Derivative Instruments, Iran Mercantile Exchange, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM),

Abstract :

The present study aims to structurally model the factors affecting the formation of a currency derivatives market in the Iran Mercantile Exchange. This research is applied-descriptive in nature and follows a quantitative approach, seeking to design an empirical model based on field data analysis. The statistical population consisted of 384 capital market participants—including traders, portfolio managers, financial analysts, and market regulators—selected through simple random sampling. The data collection instrument was a researcher-made questionnaire, developed based on the initial conceptual framework and qualitative findings. Its validity was assessed through face validity, convergent validity, and discriminant validity. Furthermore, its reliability was confirmed using Cronbach’s alpha and internal consistency indicators.

Data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with the SmartPLS software. The final model structure included six core categories—causal conditions, central category, contextual factors, intervening factors, strategies, and outcomes—comprising 19 constructs and 67 measurement items. The results of the path analysis indicated that all relationships between the main variables of the model were statistically significant, and model fit indices were within acceptable ranges. The findings suggest that factors such as strengthening institutional market infrastructure, enhancing investors' financial literacy, developing financial derivative instruments, and establishing supportive legal frameworks play a key role in the formation of a currency derivatives market in Iran.

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