Designing scenario-based policy packages for nation-building towards sustainable development with a systems dynamics approach

Subject Areas :

Ahmad Shojaeian ¹ , Aliasghar pourezzat ^{2 *} , Gholamreza Memarzadeh Tehran ³

1 - Student of Management Department, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. (Corresponding author).
3 - Associate Professor, Department of Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2023-12-16 Accepted : 2024-03-07 Published : 2024-04-24

Keywords:

Abstract :

Since the present era is a complex era with ambiguity, innovation and change, in this era, the greatest emphasis is on the use of scenario-based planning techniques. Scenarios that are very important in times of uncertainty and complexity, by having an integrated and coordinated society, the political system can focus more on developing and improving the living conditions of citizens and create a platform for sustainable development in the country. This research seeks to design nation-building policy packages for sustainable development in light of the scenario-based policymaking method. In this article, the system dynamics method has been used in designing nation-building policy packages for sustainable development. First, in the qualitative part, the method of interviewing experts related to the research topic was used, and after 12 experts, we reached theoretical saturation, which was analyzed using the content analysis method and cause and effect diagrams were drawn. And Vensim software was used to design the system dynamics model, and finally five scenarios were developed for analyzing nation-building for sustainable development. The first scenario examined changes in the accumulation variable with increased social cohesion, the second scenario examined changes in the accumulation variable with increased quality of life and social welfare, the third scenario examined changes in the accumulation variable with increased economic stability, the fourth scenario examined changes in the accumulation variable with reduced organized corruption, and the fifth scenario examined changes in the accumulation variable with reduced media control and censorship.

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