Comparing the Application of Bayesian Modeling and Multi Criteria Decision Making Method in Environmental Risk Assessment of Dams (Case study: Taleghan Dam)

Subject Areas : environmental management

Negar Tayebzadeh Moghadam ^{1 *} , Bahram Malekmohammadi ² , Ahmadreza Yavari ³

1 - MSc in Environmental Planning and Management, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. * (Corresponding Author)
2 - Associate Professor of Environmental Planning and Management, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 - Associate Professor of Environmental Planning and Management, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Received: 2014-02-17 Accepted : 2014-10-11 Published : 2017-03-21

Keywords: Bayesian network (BN), Environmental risk assessment , Risk factors, Multiple criteria decision mak, Taleghan dam,

Abstract :

Background and Objective: Environmental risk assessment is an important tool to achieve sustainable development. The purpose of this study is application of Bayesian modeling method based on a hierarchical structure for prioritization, assessment and offering management solutions to reduce the hazards of Taleghan dam environmental risks. Method: In the first method, environmental risk assessment (ERA) of Taleghan dam was performed by using Bayesian Network (BN) and the Netica software. To compare the results of this method with those of conventional methods such as multi criteria decision making method (MCDM), ERA of Taleghan dam was also performed by MCDM method and use of the Expert Choice software. Findings: Based on the obtained results, the output node of the BN, changes in land use, effects on population and erosion and sedimentation are the most important risks and pollution, seismic, flooding, tourism and ecosensetivity are in second priorities. Conclusion: BN as a new method with some advantages such as considering the relation between variables and uncertainty conditions data is considered flexible model with high capacity for ERA. Therefore, to achieve a comprehensive solution for environmental risk of engineering projects such as dam construction, application of BN based on the MCDM has a high performance.  

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