The study of temperature increases effects due to global climate change on the Mean Sea Level (MSL) in the north coasts of Persian Gulf (Hormozgan province)

Subject Areas : environmental management

Azam Jafari ¹ , Masoud Torabi Azad ² , Shahab Sohrabi ³

1 - Ph.D student of Nano Phyiscs, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran
2 - Associate Prof. Faculty of Marine Science and Technology, Islamic Azad University, Tehran North Branch, Tehran, Iran *(Corresponding Author).
3 - Ph.D student, Sari University, Sari, Iran

Received: 2010-12-31 Accepted : 2011-10-04 Published : 2016-09-22

Keywords:

Abstract :

Background and Objective:: One of the probable results of global warming is rise of free seas level. Scientists believe the increase of greenhouse gases (earth temperature controller) is the reason of this global warming and by using satellite measurements, have forecasted averagely 1-2 mm for increase of free seas level. Methods: This research by collecting and analyzing long term data of annual mean of global temperature (Gtemp), annual mean of Hormozgan province temperature (Temp), annual mean of sea surface temperature (SST) and also annual mean sea level (MSL) related to these coasts, at first compares the significance of their changes in 5 years groupings during recent 20 years with a long term group of each variable as control, by using Duncan test, then considering being significant the increasing trend of mean of recent years groups, derives the regression equation between first three variables (Gtemp, Temp and SST) as independent variables with the last variable (MSL) as dependent variable using multi- variable regression, studies the quality and quantity of influence of each one of them on MSL and by this mean, propounds the necessary predicts in this regard. Findings and Conclusion: The results of this study show the increasing trend of annual mean of the quantities of experimental groups concluded to 2008 (namely recent years) in each of four mentioned variables has had significant difference with groups before them (during recent 20 years) and also with control group (long term mean of each one of the groups). Moreover, three variables including Gtemp, Temp and SST in multi-variable regression for calculating MSL have coefficients of 4.45, 1.713 and 0.798 respectively.

References:

1. http://www.isfahanmetportal.ir/

2. Mahongo. Sh, 2006, Impacts of sea level change,  Odin Africa / Gloss Training Workshop on Sea – Level Measurement and Interpretation. Oostende, Belgium.


3. Sinha.P.C.,2003, Sea Level Rise due to Global Warming and Climate Variability, Antarctic Geosciences, Ocean atmosphere Interaction and Paleoclimatology .pp 148-159


4. 10. Samadianfard.S, Delirhasannia.R, Torabi Azad.M, Samadianfard.S, Jeihouni.M, 2016, Intelligent Analysis of Global Warming Effects on Sea Surface Temperature in Hormuzgan Coast, Persian Gulf, Int. J. of Global Warming ,Vol 9, Issue 4,452-466.


5. افشین نیا. م ،1372 ، روش های آماری و کاربرد آن در علوم ،انتشارات اتا.


6. غیاثوند . ا ، 1387 ،  کاربرد آمار و نرم افزار SPSS در تحلیل داده ها  ، نشر لویه


7. www.worldweather.org/


8. http://oceanwatch.pifsc.noaa.gov/las/servlets/constrain


9. جلیل نژاد.م ،1385، ارزیابی مدل های مختلف بکار رفته در تعیینMSL  با استفاده از مشاهدات ارتفاع سنجی ماهواره ای ،پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده فنی دانشگاه تهران.


10. رئیسی .الف،1385، بررسی پارامترهای فیریکی  و دینامیک آب در تنگه هرمز(قشم و بندر عباس)پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد فیزیک دریا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران شمال.