Climate Modeling in Tehran & Mazandaran Provinces by LARSWG and Comparing Changes in Northern and Southern Central Alborz hillside

Subject Areas : environmental management

Nafise Haghtalab ¹ , Mohsen Goodarzi ² , Majid Habibi Nokhandan ³ , Ahmad Reza Yavari ⁴ , Hamid Reza Jafari ⁵

1 - Assistant Professor, Green Space engineering group, Agriculture School, Malayer University
2 - Member of Academy Board, Green Space engineering group, Agriculture School, Malayer University
3 - Member of Academy Board, Meteorology research centre, Management of Climate Research
4 - Member of Academy Board, Management group of planning for Environment, Environment School, Tehran university.
5 - Member of Academy Board, Management group of planning for Environment, Environment School, Tehran university

Received: 2009-04-04 Accepted : 2009-04-17 Published : 2013-03-21

Keywords: climate change in Tehran &amp, Maz, LARS-WG, heavy rain fall, Desert,

Abstract :

AbstractIn recent decades increasing the green house gases caused damage to the Earth climate balance whichis named Climate Change. Most important effects are increasing in mean temperature, flood, storm,hail and sea levels. In this article, synoptic stations in Mazandaran and Tehran provinces isinvestigated from 1988 to 2005 and by LARS-WG modeling and by downscaling GCM data which ispredicted for 2010-2039. The main purpose of this research was comparing changes between Northernand Sothern hillside of Central Alborz Mountain. Finally, according to the rain and temperatureincensement in both provinces, development of deserts happens and this negative expanding in theSouthern side of Alborz will be more extensive. Also, heavy rain falls may increase in both sides, butin Mazandaran more sever rain fall will occur and in Tehran rain fall will happen in short period oftimes and more frequently.

References:

منابع

1. IPCC: Climate Change: The Scientific Basic. Contribution of Working Group 1 to The Third Assessment report to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y. , U.S.A., 881pp. 2001

1. Dubrovsky, M., 1996: Met&Roll: the stochastic generator of daily weather series for the crop growth model. Meteorological Bulletin 49, 97-105.


2. Dubrovsky, M., 1996: Validation of the stochastic Weather Generator Met&ROLL, Meteorogickeo Zpravy, Vol49, pp. 12q – 1380.


3. Semenov M.A. & Brooks R.J. (1999), Spatial interpolation of the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator in great Britain. Climate Research 11, 137-148.


4. Downing, T.E., Harrison, P.A., Butterfield, R.E & Lonsdale, K.G., (2000), Climate Change Climatic Variability and Agriculture in Europe, An integrated assessment. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford.


5. Harmel, R. D, et.al, 2002: Evaluating the Adequecy of Simulating Maximum and Minimum Daily Air Temprature With  the Normal Distributian, Canadian  Society for engineering , 26pp.


6. Mikhai A. et all, 2002: LARS-WG a stochastic weather generator for use in climate impact studies. User’s manual.


7. www.whether.ir

9. نقشه های 1:50000 سازمان جغرافیایی ارتش، 1385.