Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Oil Supply and Demand Shocks in Selected Oil Exporting Countries: PSVAR Approach
Subject Areas : Bi-quarterly Journal of development economics and planning
Ali hamid Shati ghariri
1
(
PhD student in economics, Department of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
)
Hossein Hossein Sharifi Renani
2
(
.Associate Professor of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
)
Munaf Marza Neama Radi
3
(
Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Al-Qadisiyah, Al-Diwaniyah, Iraq ,
)
Sara Ghobadi
4
(
Assistant Professor of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.
)
Keywords: Global Oil Price, Oil Supply Shock, Oil Demand Shock, Macroeconomic Consequences, Panel Structral Vector Autoregression Method (PSVAR),
Abstract :
The analysis of macroeconomic consequences the economic impact of global oil price shocks on the economic components of countries is not simple. Based on this, in the current research, the macroeconomic consequences of global oil supply and demand shocks have been investigated. The statistical sample of the present research is 11 countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, America, Kuwait, Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Iran and Oman, which have the highest oil export ranking in 2022, during the period of 2001 to 2022. In order to calculate global oil price shocks, the approach of Kilian (2009) was used, and the panel structral vector autoregression method (PSVAR) was used to analyze the data. In general and based on the analyzes carried out, it was found that global oil price shocks had positive and stable effects on the variables of non-oil trade volume, money volume and government size, while negative and stable effects on production variables. GDP and real exchange rate. It was also observed that the impact of global oil price shocks on the studied variables was different, so that the highest impact was related to oil demand shock and the lowest impact was related to specific oil demand shock. Based on this, it is concluded that in examining the effect of oil price shocks on macroeconomic parameters of countries, the effects of oil shocks with different sources should be considered separately.
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