Mathematical Model of Novel COVID-19 and Its Transmission Dynamics

Subject Areas : International Journal of Mathematical Modelling & Computations

Eshetu Gurmu ¹ , Getachew Batu ² , Mamo Wameko ³

1 - Mathematics, Natural Science,Wollega,Nekemte, Ethiopia
2 - Department of Mathematics, Applied Natural Science, Adama Science and Technology University, Adama, Ethiopia
3 - Mathematics, College of Natural and computational science, Nekemte, Ethiopia

Received: 2020-03-05 Accepted : 2020-06-10 Published : 2020-06-20

Keywords: Stability, Sensitivity, model, COVID-19, Reproduction Number,

Abstract :

In this paper, we formulated a dynamical model of COVID-19 to describe the transmission dynamics of the disease. The well possedness of the formulated model equations was proved. Both local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium point of the model equation was established using basic reproduction number. The results show that, if the basic reproduction number is less than one then the solution converges to the disease free steady state i.e. the disease free equilibrium is asymptotically stable. The endemic states are considered to exist when the basic reproduction number for each disease is greater than one. Numerical simulation carried out on the model revealed that an increase in level of contact rate among individuals has an effect on reducing the prevalence of COVID-19 and COVID-19 disease. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of the model equation was performed on the key parameters to find out their relative significance and potential impact on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.