A Review of Urban Growth Prediction Models
Subject Areas :
Urban Environment
Fatemeh
Hajizadeh
1
(Ph.D., Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Sciences, University of Gorgan, Iran.* ( Corresponding Author))
Abdolrasoul
Salman Mahiny
2
(Associate Professor, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Sciences, University of Gorgan, Iran.)
Received: 2016-10-08
Accepted : 2016-12-14
Published : 2019-09-23
Keywords:
Urbanization Prediction,
Urban Planning,
Modeling,
Urban Models,
Abstract :
Human population continues to aggregate in urban centers, who inevitably increases the urban footprint with significant consequences for biodiversity, climate, and environmental resources. Urban growth prediction models have been extensively studied with the overarching goal to assist in sustainable management of urban centers. Despite the extensive research, these models are not frequently included in the decision making process. The survey found a strong recognition of the models’ potential in decision making, but limited agreement which these models actually reach enough potential in practice. This review aims are an overview of existing models, including advantages and limitations. Also, in general, it will be discussed to main reason for not applying these models in the decision making. Analysis of aggregated statistics indicates that cellular automata are the prevailing modeling technique, present in the majority of published works. Also, being unfamiliar decision-makers with models and thelack of popularity models to research are significant reasons for not using these models in the decision making.
References:
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Waddell, P. 2001. Towards a Behavioral Integration of Land Use and Transportation Modeling, 9th International Association of Travel Behavior Conference, Quensland, Australia, July 2000, www.urbanism.org (August 2011).
28. حسینعلی، فرهاد؛ آلشیخ، علی اصغر؛ نوریان، فرشاد.1391. توسعه مدلی عامل- مبنا برای شبیهسازی گسترش کاربری اراضی شهری( مطالعه موردی: قزوین). مطالعات و پژوهشهای شهری و منطقهای سال چهارم، شماره چهاردهم، صص. 1-22
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Triantakonstantis, D. and Mountrakis, G. 2012. Urban Growth Prediction: A Review of Computational Models and Human Perceptions. Journal of Geographic Information System, Vol. 4, pp. 555-587.
Eastman, R. J. 2001. Guide to GIS and Image processing. Vol. 2. Clark University, USA. 144.
O’Sullivan, D. 2001. Exploring spatial process dynamics using irregular cellular automaton models. Geographical Analysis, No. 33, pp. 1-18.
White, R. and Engelen, G. 2000. Highresolution integrated modeling of the spatial dynamics of urban and regional systems. Computers, Environment and Urban systems, No. 24, pp. 383- 400.
رضازاده، راضیه؛ میراحمدی، مهرداد. 1388. مدل اتوماسیون سلولی، روشی نوین در شبیهسازی رشد شهری. نشریه علمی پژوهشی فناوری آموزش، سال چهارم، جلد، شماره 4 صص. 55 -47.
زارعی، رضا؛ آلشیخ، علیاصغر. 1391. مدلسازی توسعه شهری با استفاده از اتوماسیون سلولی و الگوریتم ژنتیک( منطقه مورد مطالعه: شهر شیراز). مجله پژوهش و برنامهریزی شهری، سال سوم، شماره یازدهم، صص. 16 -1.
Batty, M. Couclelis, H. and Eichen, M. 1997. Urban systems as cellular automata. Environment and Planning B, No. 24, pp. 159-164.
Menhaj, M. B. 2005. Neural Network principal. Amir Kabir University Publication. Second edition.
McCulloch, W.S. and Pitts, W. 1943. A Logical Calculus of the Ideas Imminent in Nervous Activity. Bulletin of Mathematical Biophysics, Vol. 5, pp. 115-133.
رحیمی، اکبر. 1393. مدلسازی توسعه تبریز در سال 1410 با استفاده از LTM. دو فصلنامه پژوهشهای بومشناسی شهری، سال پنجم، شماره 2، صص. 99-109.
کامیاب، حمیدرضا؛ سلمان ماهینی، عبدالرسول، حسینی، سید محسن، غلامعلیفرد، مهدی. 1389. کاربرد شبکه عصبی مصنوعی در مدلسازی توسعه شهری( مطالعه موردی: شهر گرگان). پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی، شماره 76، صص. 113-99.
محمدی، ساسان؛ دلاور، محمودرضا. 1393. مدلسازی توسعه شهری با روش رگرسیون لجستیک مطالعه موردی: شهر سنندج. نشریه علمی- پژوهشی علوم و فنون نقشهبرداری، دوره چهارم، شماره 2، صص. 77-86.
Parashar, Rinku. Bandyopadhyay, Abir. 2014. Fractals, architecture and sustainability. Recent Research in Science and Technology, Vol.6, No.1, pp. 93-96. Available Online: http://recent-science.com. ISSN: 2076-5061.
Shan, J. Alkheder, S. and Wang, J. 2008. Genetic algorithms for the calibration of cellular automata urban growth modeling. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, Vol. 74. No.10, pp. 1267-1277.
Irwin, E. G. and Geoghegan, J. 2001. Theory, data methods: developing spatially explicit economic models of land use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Vol. 85, pp. 7–23.
Masuda, J.R. and Garvin, T. 2008. Whose Heartland?: The politics of place in a rural–urban interface. Journal of Rural Studies, Vol. 24, Issue 1, pp. 112- 123.
Parker, D.C. Manson, S.M. Janssen, M.A. Hoffman, M.J. and Deadman, P. 2003. Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land use and land cover change: A review. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 93, pp.314–337.
Ligmann-Zielinska, A. and Jankowski, P. 2007. Agent-Based Models as Laboratories for Spatially Explicit Planning Policies. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Vol. 34. Pp. 316-335.
Gimblett, R.H. 2002. Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Agent-based Modeling Techniques, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Miller, E. Hunt, J.D. Abraham, J.E. and Salvini, P.A. 2004. Microsimulating urban systems. Computers Environment and Urban Systems, Vol. 28, pp. 9-44.
Lambin, E. F. 1994. Modelling Deforestation Processes: A Review. Luxembourg: European Commission, Directorate-General XIII. Report no. EUR-15744-EN.
Baker, W.L. 1989. A review of models in landscape change. Landscape Ecology, Vol. 2, No.2, pp. 111-133.
In suburban regions-simulation of landscape transition with spatial agents. Environmental EPA. 2000. Projecting Land-Use Change: A Summary of Models for Assessing the Effects of Community Growth and Change on Land-Use Patterns. Cincinnati, OH: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development Publication EPA/600/R-00/098.
Agarwal, C. Green, G.M. Grove, J.M. Evans, T. and Schweik, T. 2002. A review and assessment of land-use change models: Dynamics of space, time, and human choice. Burlington, VT: USDA Forest Service Northeastern Forest Research Station Publication NE-297.
Torrens, P.M. 2003. Cellular automata and multi-agent systems as planning support tools, In: S Geertman, J Stillwell (Eds), Planning Support Systems in Practice, Springer, New York, pp. 203-222.
Loibl, W. and Toetzer, T. 2003. Modeling growth and densification Modelling & Software, Vol.18, pp. 553-563.
Waddell, P. 2001. Towards a Behavioral Integration of Land Use and Transportation Modeling, 9th International Association of Travel Behavior Conference, Quensland, Australia, July 2000, www.urbanism.org (August 2011).
28. حسینعلی، فرهاد؛ آلشیخ، علی اصغر؛ نوریان، فرشاد.1391. توسعه مدلی عامل- مبنا برای شبیهسازی گسترش کاربری اراضی شهری( مطالعه موردی: قزوین). مطالعات و پژوهشهای شهری و منطقهای سال چهارم، شماره چهاردهم، صص. 1-22
