Identification and ranking of factors affecting crisis management in human mass gatherings based on DEMATEL and ANP models (Case Study: Arbaeen Walking)

Subject Areas : Environmental Risk Analysis

Minoo Safipour ¹ , Mojgan Zaeimdar ² , Manouchehr Omidvari ^{3 *} , Razi naserifar ⁴

1 - PhD student in Environmental Management, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch, Tehran - Iran.
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Environment, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch, Tehran - Iran.
3 - Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Technology, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin Branch, Qazvin - Iran. *(Corresponding Author)
4 - Associate Professor, Department of Medical Parasitology, Faculty of Parasitology, Research Center for Human and Animal Joint Diseases, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Iran.

Received: 2024-07-08 Accepted : 2025-07-30 Published : 2025-09-23

Keywords: Crisis management, Mass gatherings human, DEMATEL, ANP.,

Abstract :

Background and Objective: Ceremonies and events human with the presence of large crowds happen every year in different parts of the world. On the other hand, the high density of massive human population in small spaces has caused the dangerous nature of these gatherings, which can threaten the health and safety of those present. The present study was conducted with the aim of identifying and ranking the factors affecting crisis management among mass gatherings human at the international border of Mehran.

Material and Methodology: In this study, DEMATEL and ANP methods were used to collect and analyze data. The information required to perform the seven steps of the DANP technique has been collected by receiving the opinion of experts using a standard questionnaire. The criteria measured in this study were categorized in the form of two main indicators of resilience in crisis management (probability of crisis and severity of crisis), and finally, according to the results of the weighted supermatrix of the DANP technique, the factors involved were identified and ranked.

Findings: Based on the results obtained from the crisis probability index, the criterion of unstable and unsafe structures has the highest weight (0.7811) and the criterion of population density is in second place (0.0820). Also, the results obtained from the crisis severity index showed that the criterion of lack of transportation facilities for the elderly and physically disabled has the highest weight (0.1244) and the criterion of the existence of digestive and respiratory diseases due to population density is in second place (0.1212).

Discussion and Conclusion: The result of the present study showed that the safety indicators of the structure and the process of traffic and transportation of pilgrims, especially in vulnerable groups, can be considered as effective factors in managing the crisis of mass human gatherings, so it is suggested that managers before Holding any kind of mass gathering ceremony, take the necessary measures to assess the risk and check the mentioned indicators.

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