Tehran Stock Exchange Overal Index Prediction using Combined Approach of Metaheuristic Algorithms, Artificial Intelligence and Parametric Mother Wavelet

Subject Areas : Financial engineering

Alireza Saranj ¹ , Madjid Ghods ² , reza tehrani ³

1 - Faculty of Management and Accounting, Farabi College, University of Tehran
2 - MBA, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Farabi College, University of Tehran
3 - Full Professor, Financial Management and Insurance Dept., Faculty of Management, University of Tehran

Received: 2017-12-02 Accepted : 2018-01-02 Published : 2018-06-22

Keywords: Metaheuristic Algorithms, Artificial Neural Networks, Wavelet Transform, stock market index prediction,

Abstract :

Understanding and the investigating the behavior of stock prices, has always been one of the major topics of interest to the investors and finance scholars. In recent years, various models for prediction using neural network and hybrid models have been proposed which have a better performance than the traditional models. Here a hybrid model of neural network and wavelet transform is proposed in which genetic algorithm has been used to improve the performance of wavelet transform in optimizing the wavelet function. Daily stock exchange rates of TSE from April 21, 2012 to April 19, 2017 are used to develop a prediction model. The results show that it is possible to find a wavelet basis, which will be appropriate to the intrinsic characteristics of time series for prediction and the prediction error in this model is reduced comparing to the neural network and hybrid neural network and wavelet models.