Forecasting Volatility & Risk Management in Tehran Stock Exchange through Long memory impacts
Subject Areas : Financial engineering
ehsan Taiebysani
1
(مدیر سرمایه گذاری / کارگزاری بانک صنعت و معدن)
Madihe Changi Ashtiani
2
(معامله گر/کارگزاری بانک صنعت و معدن)
Keywords: Value at risk, Long memory, Tehran Stock Exchange index (TEPIX), Iran Fara Bourse Index, GARCH Asymmetric Model,
Abstract :
In this paper we explored the relevance of asymmetry and long memory in modeling and forecasting the conditional volatility and market risk of equity market in Iran capital Market (Tehran Stock exchange(TSE) and Iran Fara Bourse(IFB)). A broad set of the most popular linear and nonlinear GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional Heteroskedasticity)-type models is used to investigate this relevancy of asymmetry and long memory. Our in sample and out-of-sample results displayed that volatility of commodity returns can be better described by nonlinear volatility models accommodating the long memory and asymmetry features. In particular, the FIAPARCH (Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH) model is found to be the best suited for estimating the VaR forecasts for both short and long trading positions. This model given a risk exposure at the 99% confidence interval level have Several implications for equity market risks, policy regulations and hedging strategies can be drawn from the obtained results of this paper.
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