Designing a Model for Forecasting the Stock Exchange Total Index Returns (Emphasizing on Combined Deep Learning Network Models and GARCH Family Models)
Subject Areas : Financial engineeringMehdi Zolfaghari 1 , Bahram Sahabi 2 , Mohamad javad Bakhtyaran 3
1 - Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 - Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
Keywords: forecasting, GARCH Family, Stock Exchange Index, Deep Learning Network,
Abstract :
Given the development of machine learning models in predicting financial data in recent years, this study introduces a combination of Deep Learning Network and selected GARCH family models to predict short-term daily returns of the Tehran Stock Exchange Index. The most important feature of the deep learning network is that it can adapt and adjust itself to the volatility of market variables without being limited to specific models. In this study, short-term and long-term memory based neural network (RNN-LSTM) models are used for deep learning network models and GARCH and EGARCH models are used in its structure. Also, the two independent variables of oil price and dollar rate in the structure of the hybrid model help to predict the financial data more accurately. Comparison of the results of hybrid model prediction error with individual models shows that the RNN-LSTM-EGARCH hybrid model has higher prediction accuracy than competing models. competing models.
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