Forecasting the Global Gold Price Movement with Marginal Distribution Modeling Approach: An Application of the Copula GARCH Gaussian and t
Subject Areas : Financial engineeringMohammad reza Haddadi 1 , Younes Nademi 2 * , Hamed Farhadi 3
1 - Department of Mathematics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran.
2 - Department of Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran.
3 - Department of Mathematics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran.
Keywords: Forecast, Time series, COPULA, gold price, GARCH-Copula Model,
Abstract :
Given the importance of gold prices in financial markets and the economic effects of price fluctuations, the trend of gold price changes in the national and global economy has attracted the attention of many researchers and economic analysts. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to predict the trend of the global gold price movement. The purpose of this study was to introduce a combined model of the GARCH-Classic and the GARCH-Copula models and to compare them with the Garch family models in order to predict the global gold price trend in the period 01/04/2002 to 26/06/2018. The forecast horizons are 1, 5, 10, and 22 days. The prediction accuracy of these models has been evaluated and compared using RMSE error criterion. Results showed that in short-run prediction horizons, the normal Capula model with GARCH-t distribution and in long run prediction horizon, Capula- t model with the distribution of GARCH-t performs better than competing models. The hybrid model presented in this study has a high potential for predicting the trend of global gold price movement, so using this model for different sector investors, economic analysts, as well as country macro planners, can have valuable results.
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