Evaluating the Impact of Oil Price Volatilities and Output Gap on Trade Balance in Iranian Economy
Subject Areas : Financial Economicsmehdi yazdani 1 , tahereh noorafroz 2
1 - استادیار اقتصاد بین‌الملل، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران.ایران
2 - کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه اشرفی اصفهانی.ایران
Keywords: Oil Prices, exchange rate, F31, F32, Keywords: Trade Balance, Output Gap, ARDL Method. JEL Classification: C32,
Abstract :
Abstract The macroeconomic variables have been affected by the volatilities and changes in oil price in the world countries and they have faced with serious challenges and lead to consider various tactics to avoid the negative effects of these shocks. However the instability of the oil market will make long-run planning impossible for policy making which is based on oil revenues in the oil exporting countries. Hence the purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of volatility of oil price on the trade balance in Iranian economy during 1357-1390 with ARDL method. The results of this study indicate that the coefficients of oil prices and the output gap are significant in the 95% level and their relationships are negative with the trade balance. Moreover, the coefficient of exchange rate on the trade balance is positive and is statistically significant in 99% level. According the estimated relationship between oil price and the trade balance, policymakers can adopt suitable strategies in the face of volatiles in oil price and utilize it in economic development, codify social programs, set the annual budgets of the country and design appropriate policies to maintain economic stability.
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