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Open Access Article
1 - Clarification of a profitable trading system based on dynamic analysis
Atefeh Bagheri Naghneh Sayyed Mohammad Reza DavoodiPurpose: The purpose of this study is to predict stock returns and ultimately present a trading strategy based on dynamic analysis.Methodology: The behavior of a stock portfolio can be considered as a complex and chaotic dynamic system in which the return of the portfol MorePurpose: The purpose of this study is to predict stock returns and ultimately present a trading strategy based on dynamic analysis.Methodology: The behavior of a stock portfolio can be considered as a complex and chaotic dynamic system in which the return of the portfolio is a state variable that reflects the state of the system. Dynamic mode decomposition is one of the methods in which with the help of available data, a linear approximation of the nonlinear operator governing the system is obtained and by calculating the main modes, the system output can be explicitly calculated in terms of time.Findings: The results of research on a portfolio consisting of 14 industries from the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2010 to 2019 and considering the 5 main modes of system guidance show that the optimal lag is six and the Sharp ratio obtained from the trading system of two Equivalent to the buy and hold system.Originality / Value: Therefore, the use of this trading system is recommended for short-term trading. Manuscript profile
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