Critics of the epistemology of future studies, emphasizing on the rationality of the strategic foresight
Subject Areas : Epistemological researchesMoslem Shirvani Naghani 1 , Mohammad Rahim Eivazi 2
1 - PhD Candidate of future studies, Imam Khomeini international university, Ghazvin
2 - Professor of future studies department, , Imam Khomeini international university, Ghazvin
Keywords: Critical realism, Strategic Foresight, Value-Based Rationality, Experimental Rationality, Pragmatism,
Abstract :
Rapid changing, the enhance of uncertainty and the complicated environmental conditions in the present century led to avoiding taken-for-granted linear change in planning and decision-making in various parameters and tending to use futures studies in different levels and areas instead. However, studies related to the future were always faced the cognitive challenges. In this study, the theory of Wendell Bell in cognitive futures studies, as one of the most famous theories in the area, was critically investigated. Then, the rationality of strategic foresight as a pragmatic approach to the future studies was analyzed. IN other words, the rationality of proposition that extracted from the future study by strategic foresight approach was investigated. Besides recognizing the most influential weaknesses of his theory, the findings of the research revealed that “the problem-solving”, “accuracy in predicting”, “balance between issues”, “simplicity”, “expansion”, and “compatibility” along with “being value-oriented” are criteria which introduce strategic foresight as a rational and wise approach which can significantly help long-term studies related to the future. Hence, to develop and apply the strategic foresight, the suggestions are provided for the academic researchers, industrial, and administered authorities.
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