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    List of Articles Julius Tumwiine


  • Article

    1 - Modelling the Impact of Trapping Blackfly Vectors on the Transmission of Onchocerciasis
    International Journal of Mathematical Modeling & Computations , Issue 5 , Year , Autumn 2020
    Onchocerciasis, usually referred to as river blindness, a skin and eye parasitic infestation is caused by the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus. Current control and eradication efforts are being frustrated by the continued existence and thriving of blackflies which More
    Onchocerciasis, usually referred to as river blindness, a skin and eye parasitic infestation is caused by the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus. Current control and eradication efforts are being frustrated by the continued existence and thriving of blackflies which are the disease transmitting vectors that breed along the banks of fast flowing and highly oxygenated rivers and streams. This study aims at assessing the effect of using vector traps on the transmission and control of onchocerciasis. A host-vector deterministic model which incorporates vector trapping by use of a system of ordinary differential equations is developed. The model is analysed for steady states and the basic reproduction number is obtained using the next generation method. It is found that the disease free steady state is stable if the basic reproduction number R0<1. There exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is locally and globally asymptotically stable if R0>1. Numerical simulations show that trapping the blackfly vectors has an effect on the spread and control of the disease. However, it is discovered that using traps alone is not a sufficient strategy and needs to be combined with other methods if the disease is to be completely wiped out of the population. Manuscript profile

  • Article

    2 - Stability Analysis of a Malaria Transmission Model for the Effect of Infected Immigrants with Temperature and Rainfall Dependent Parameters
    International Journal of Mathematical Modeling & Computations , Issue 2 , Year , Spring 2022
    A human host-mosquito vector model for transmission of malaria with infow of infected immigrants is formulated. The mosquito population includes aquatic stages (eggs, larvae, and pupae) and mature stages which have highly temperature and rainfall dependent life cycles. More
    A human host-mosquito vector model for transmission of malaria with infow of infected immigrants is formulated. The mosquito population includes aquatic stages (eggs, larvae, and pupae) and mature stages which have highly temperature and rainfall dependent life cycles. Model analysis reveals that the model only attains two (2) endemic equilibria; one in absence of the vector population and the other in presence of the vector population. The endemic equilibrium without the mosquito vector population is unstable. The endemic equilibrium with the vector population is locally stable and globally unstable. Numerical simulations of the model reveal that the proportion of infected humans introduced into the community does not significantly change the pattern of malaria transmission. Manuscript profile