Redefinition of the Relation between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Iran: Markov Switching Approach
Subject Areas : Labor and Demographic EconomicsA. M. Mozayani 1 , A. Esari Arani 2 , B. Afsharian 3 , A. Rasouli 4
1 - استادیار اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
2 - استادیار اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
3 - کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
4 - دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
Keywords: energy consumption, O13, JEL Classification: Q43, C33 Keywords: Value-Added, Asymmetry, Markov Switching, Economic Recession and Boom,
Abstract :
Abstract The purpose of this study is finding the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the industry and transport sector in developed and developing provinces in Iran through Markov switching model during 2000-2010. The results indicate a positive effect of energy consumption growth on value added growth in industry and transportation both in developed and developing provinces. But, the positive effect of energy consumption will be increased by moving from recession to economic boom phrase. The results imply that the relation between energy consumption and economic growth in transportation sector is more than industry and there is an asymmetric relation between energy consumption and economic growth.
منابع
- آرمن، سید عزیز، زارع، روح الله (1388). مصرف انرژی در بخشهای مختلف و ارتباط آن با رشد اقتصادی در ایران: تحلیل علّیت بر اساس روش تودا و یاماموتو، فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی، 6 (21): 92-67.
- آرمن، سید عزیز، زارع، روح الله، (1388). بررسی رابطه علیت گرنجری بین مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران طی سالهای 1381-1386. فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران، (24).
- آماده، حمید، قاضی، مرتضی و عباسی فر، زهره (1388). بررسی رابطه مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی و اشتغال در بخشهای مختلف اقتصاد ایران، مجله تحقیقات اقتصادی، (86): 38-1.
- بهبودی، داود، اصغری، حسین، قزوینیان، محمد حسن (1388). شکست ساختاری، مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی ایران (1346-1384)، فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی، 9 (3): 84-53.
- حسنی صدرآبادی، محمدحسین، همکاران (1386). بررسی رابطه علی مصرف انرژی، اشتغال و تولید ناخالص داخلی. پژوهشنامه علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، (7).
- ضرابی، اصغر، شاهیوندی، احمد (1389). تحلیلی بر پراکندگی شاخصهای توسعه اقتصادی در استانهای ایران. مجله جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی، (38):32-17.
- فلاحی، فیروز، منتظری شورکچالی، جلال (1389). مصرف فرآوردههای نفتی و تاثیر آن بر رشد اقتصادی ایران؛ یک رویکرد غیرخطی، فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران، 15 (44): 133- 111.
- مهرآرا محسن، زارعی محمود (1390). اثرات غیرخطی مصرف انرژی بر رشد اقتصادی مبتنی بر رویکرد حد آستانهای، پژوهشهای رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، 2 (5).
- مهرآرا، محسن، ابریشمی، حمید، سبحانیان، سید محمد هادی (1390)، اثرات غیر خطی رشد اقتصادی بر رشد مصرف انرژی در کشورهای عضو اوپک و کشورهای بریک با استفاده از روش حد آستانه، فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران، 16 (49): 204-177.
- Aqeel, A. , Butt. M.S., (2001). The Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Pakistan, Asia-Pacific Development Journal , (2): 101-110.
- Araç A. , Hasanov M. (2014). Asymmetries in the dynamic Interrelationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey, Energy Economics, (44): 259–269.
- Balcilar M. & Ozdemir Z. & Arslanturk Y. ,( 2010). Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Causal Nexus Viewed Through A Bootstrap Rolling Window, Energy Economics, 32: 1398–1410.
- Berndt E.R & Wood D.O. (1975). Technology, Prices and the Derived Demand for Energy, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No.3, VOL. LVII:259-268.
- Bozoklu S. &Yilanci V., (2013). Energy Consumption And Economic Growth For Selected OECD Countries: Further evidence from the Granger causality test in the frequency domain ,Energy Policy, 63:877–881.
- Clements, M.P., Krolzig, H.M., 2000. Modeling Business Cycle Features using Switching Regimes Models. Discussion Paper, Institute of Economics and Statistics Oxford.
- Cologni, A., Manera, M., 2009. The Asymmetric Effects of energy Shocks on Output Growth: a Markov-Switching Analysis for G7 Countries. Economic Modelling 26, 1–29.
- Dagher L. & Yacoubian T. (2012), The causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Lebanon), Energy Policy, 50 , 795–801.
- Dergiades T. & Martinopoulos G. Tsoulfidis L. (2013), Energy consumption and economic growth: Parametric and non-parametric causality testing for the case of Greece, Energy Economics 36, 686–697
- Diebold, F.X., 1986. Modeling the Persistence of Conditional Variance: a Comment. Econometric Reviews 5, 51–56.
- Eggoh J. C. & Bangake C. & Rault C., (2011). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited in African Countries, Energy Policy 39: 7408–7421.
- Erdal, G. et al. (2008), The Causality Between EnergyConsumption and Economic Growth in Turkey. Energy Policy, (36): 3838-3842.
- Garcia, R., Perron, P., (1996). An Analysis of the Real energy Rate under Regime Shifts. Review of Economics and Statistics, 78:111–125.
- Fallahi, F., (2011). Causal Relationship Between Energy Consumption (EC) and GDP: A Markov-switching (MS) causality. Energy, 36 (7): 4165-4170.
- Kraft, J., Kraft, A. (1978). Note and Comments : On the Relationship between Energy and GNP. The Journal of Energy and Development, 3: 401-403.
- Krolzig, H.-M. (1997). Markov Switching Vector Autoregressions. Modelling, Statistical Inference and Application to Business Cycle Analysis. Berlin: Springer.
- Mehara, Mohsen. (2007). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries. Energy Policy, No. 35, PP.2939- 2945.
- Mehrara, Mohsen. (2006). The Relatioship Between EnergyConsumption and Economic growth in Iran. Iranian Economic Review. 10(17): 137-148.
- Oh, W., Lee, K., (2004). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Korea: testing the causality relation. Journal of Policy Modeling, No. 26, pp.973–981.
- Śmiech S. & Papież M. (2014), Energy consumption and economic growth in the light of meeting the targets of energy policy in the EU: The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach , Energy Policy, 71,118–129.
- Śmiech S. , Papież M. (2014), Energy consumption and economic growth in the light of meeting the targets of energy policy in the EU: The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach,Energy Policy, No.71, PP.118–129
- Soytas, U. & Sari. R. (2003), Energy Consumption and GDP: CausalityRelationship in G-7 Countries and Emerging Markets. EnergyEconomics.25: 33-37.
- Stern D.I. (2000). A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Role ofEnergy in the US Macroeconomy. Energy Economics, 22: 267.
- Stern, D.I., Cleveland, C.J., (2004). Energy and Economic Growth, Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics No. 0410,Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, USA, 1-42.
- Yang, H. Y., (2000). 'A Note of the Causal Relationship Between Energy And Gdp in Taiwan', Energy Economics, 22: 309–317.
- Yildirim E. & Aslan A. (2012). Energy Consumption And Economic Growth Nexus For17highly Developed OECD Countries: Further evidence based on bootstrap-corrected causality tests, Energy Policy, 51: 985–993.
- Yildirim E. & Sukruoglu D.& Aslan A. (2014). Energy Consumption And Economic Growth in The Next 11 Countries: The bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach, Energy Economics, 44: 14–21.