Trip Forecasting Process Modeling in Urban Transportation Planning Based on Hybrid Fuzzy Inference Approach

Subject Areas : Business Management

Javad  Jassbi ¹ (Associate Professor, Science and Research Branch of Tehran, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)
Payam  Makvandi ² (Student of Ph.D. in Industrial Management, Science and Research Branch of Tehran, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)

Received: 2011-01-19 Accepted : 2011-06-10 Published : 2011-08-23

Keywords: fuzzy inference system (FIS), Urban Transportation Planning (UTP), Trip Forecasting,

Abstract :

Urban Transportation Planning (UTP) has been one of the most important decisions in urban planning and development procedures in recent years. Meanwhile, accurate trip forecasting between two given regions of the city could be considered as the key success factor of urban transportation planning. Due to the importance of the problem, different models have been developed in the field. The overall problem of trip forecasting and transportation planning could be complicated because of its nature that results from the complicated nature of human behavior. Due to the complexity of the problem, it is always hard to develop forecasting models with acceptable forecasting errors and also low computational expenses particularly in developing countries in which historical data are not fully available.  In this paper, a three phase fuzzy model is proposed to forecast trips flow between two given regions of a metropolitan based on mapping demographical and social variables to total number of trips flow. The overall model is to explore the subjective pattern of transportation experts and transfer the subjective model to a mathematical framework.  

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