Political Consequences of Natural Disasters in Iran: The Future Research on the Political Consequences of a Possible Earthquake

Subject Areas : sociology

hamid Mahalati Rayeni ¹ , Abolfazl Delavari ² , RezaAli Mohseni ³

1 - Phd student of Sociology, Department of Sociology, Tehran Central branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Associate Prof., Faculty Member, Department of political science, School of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabatabi University,Tehran,Iran
3 - PhD, Faculty Member, Department of Sociology And Social Sciences, Central Tehran branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2020-07-25 Accepted : 2020-08-08 Published : 2020-08-22

Keywords: Civil Society, Political Crisis, political elites, Political Consequences, Tehran Earthquake,

Abstract :

Iran has experienced devastating earthquakes in recent decades, each with significant damage and different socio-political consequences. What has caused public concern, especially among policymakers and managers, is the possibility of a severe earthquake in Tehran. Paying attention to the location of this city and the dimensions of the consequences of such an earthquake reveals the importance and necessity of addressing it. Many researchers, policymakers, and aid agencies believe that natural disasters strengthen alliance between groups and moderate conflict, but because they face a shortage of basic resources after people's disasters, natural disasters can provoke conflict and conflict within the country. The current study examines one of the neglected aspects of the consequences of accidents, namely political vulnerability. In this study, the future research method and a combination of Delphi technique and scenario writing, along with a questionnaire and a matrix of cross-referenced effects have been used. It has been used and referred to experts and specialists in crisis management for future research. Identification of key factors and the extent of the impact and uncertainty of the identified indicators of the political consequences of the earthquake were determined through a questionnaire compiled by experts panel. This questionnaire, which was extracted and designed based on the conceptual model and using theoretical framework, divided the influential factors into 32 factors. After summarizing the opinions of experts, a consensus was reached twice.