The Analysis of Forecasting the Monthly Trend According to Different Price Levels of Agricultural Crops (A Case Study Tomato & Potato )

Subject Areas : Reduction of waste

Seyed Ehsan Zohoori ¹ , reza moghaddasi ² , einollah hesami ³

1 - Assistant Professor, Department of governmental Management, Humanities Faculty, Shoushtar Branch, Khuzestan, Iran.
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Education, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Assistant Professor, Department of Agronomy, Agricultural and Veterinarian Faculty, Shoushtar Branch, Khuzestan, Iran.

Received: 2023-04-01 Accepted : 2023-06-20 Published : 2023-06-21

Keywords: Potato, forecasting, Price trend, smoothing, Tomato,

Abstract :

What is aimed in this research is to determine that are forecasts in years relatively high-price trend and low-price trend affected and smoothed according to the monthly potato and tomato prices? The analysis and forecasting of prices in harvesting seasons of two products are implemented by “t” test and linear regression during 1996-2021. The results have showed significant forecasts for years with normal and high price levels meanwhile the research assumption of forecasting of the price trend has been approved more for potato in a high price level. The results of this research and similar cases can be used to forecast prices for production management of such crops, market regulation and consumers’ welfare of country in different seasons of the year. In case of extra supply with decreasing price level or lack of production with increasing price level one of approaches is to present template and compulsory cultivation in accordance with competitive advantages in provinces and different regions