Providing the optimal model for stock selection based on momentum, reverse and hybrid trading strategies
Subject Areas : Financial AccountingSeyed Saadat Hosseini 1 , Asgar Pakmaram 2 , Nader Rezaei 3 , Rasol Abdi 4
1 - Bonab.human sciences
2 - Associate Prof., Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Islamic Azad University Bonab Branch, Bonab, Iran.
3 - Department of Accounting and Finance, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Maragheh Branch, Maragheh, Iran
4 - Associate Prof., Dep. of Accounting, Bonab Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bonab, Iran.
Keywords: Stock returns, Momentum, Contratium, Momentarian, Reverse,
Abstract :
Momentum strategy, despite its outstanding performance, offers different results at different time intervals. In this study, we aimed to provide an opti-mal model for stock selection based on momentum, reverse and hybrid trad-ing strategies using the data panel model. The present research method was applied on the information of 180 companies in the period 2011 to 2021 was used to estimate the model. (Eviews12) software has been used to estimate the models. Based on the results of 8 time periods of 3, 6, 9, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months based on different momentum and inverse strategies and a combination of loser, winner and loser-winner, winner-loser were analyzed. According to the data panel method, the studied strategies in small companies give more additional returns to investors than large companies. Also, based on the results of hybrid strategies, investors will receive more additional returns in the long run than simple momentum strategies.
[1] Badri, A., Dolo, M., Aghajani, F., The Source of Creating Momentum; Evidence of Risk Adjustment Method, Financial Management Perspective, 2017; 23: 9-31.
[2] Hajiannejad, A., Salavati, A. H., Analysis Of The Effect of Momentum on Size in Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, the fourth national Conference on Management, Accounting and Economics with an Emphasis on Regional and Global Marketing, 2018; (in Persian).
[3] Davallou, M., Javadian, B., The Timing of 52-week High Price Momentum: Evidence from Tehran stock Exchange, Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, 2017; 10(35): 63-77.
[4] Davallou, M., Tabarsa, B., The Style Momentum and Its Origin, Financial Research Journal, 2020; 22(3): 320-342. doi: 10.22059/frj.2020.288887.1006924
[5] Davallou, M., Fartokzadeh, H., Style Investing and Return Predictability. Journal of Investment Knowledge, 2013; 2: 121-136.
[6] Zenjidar, M., Miri, F., A Comparative Study of Two Momentum and Reversal Strategies in Iran's Capi-tal Market, The Second National Conference on Ways to Improve Management, Accounting and Industrial engineering in Organizations, Gachsaran.2013.
[7] Taghian, Z., Farid, D., Investigating The Relationship Between Excess Returns Due to Momentum Strategy and Systematic risk in Tehran Stock Exchange, Financial Management Perspective, 2015; 16(16): 9-30 (in Persian).
[8] Vayanos, D., Woolley, P., An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal, Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies. 2013; 26(5), 1087-1145.
[9] Taiebnia, A., Sourani, D., Macroeconomic Factors and Some Evidence of Arbitrage Pricing in Tehran Stock Market. qjerp, 2013; 21(66): 23-38, (in Persian).
[10] Wu, Y., Mazouz, K., Long-term industry reversals. Journal of Banking & Finance. 2016; 68(45), 236-250. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.03.017.
[11] Gay, J, R. D., Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Market Returns For Four Emerging Economies: Brazil, Russia, India, And China. International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER). 2008; 7(3), doi: 10.19030/iber.v7i3.3229
[12] Sataysh, M. H., Shamsaddini, K., Investigating the relationship between the emotional tendency of investors and the stock price of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, Accounting Advances, 2014; 8(70): 103-125, (in Persian).
[13] Mousavi Shiri, M., Salehi, M., Shakri, M., Bakhshian, A., Profitability of momentum strategy and the effect of stock trading volume on it in Tehran Stock Exchange. Journal of Financial Engineering and Securities Management, 2014; 6 (25), 107-123 , (in Persian).
[14] Bekhradinasab, V., Zholanezhad, F., The Impact of Earning Quality on Excess Returns with Regard to Momentum. Financial Engineering and Portfolio Management, 2017; 8(32): 21-42, (in Persian).
[15] Vasali, F., Habibi, R., Investigating the usefulness of momentum and reversal strategies in Tehran Stock Exchange, First International Conference on Economics, Management, Accounting and Social Sci-ences, Rasht, Iran, 2013, (in Persian).
[16] Yao, Y., Momentum, contrarian, and the January seasonality. Journal of Banking & Finance. 2012; 36(10), 2757-2769. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.12.004.
[17] Adalid, R., Liquidity shocks and asset price boom. european centeral bank. Working paper. 2007.
[18] Abukari. K, Otchere. I., Dominance of hybrid contratum strategies over momentum and contrarian strategies: half a century of evidence, Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 2020; doi: 10.1007/s11408-020-00363-3
[19] Adam, A., Tweneboakh, G., Do macroeconomic variables play any role in the stock market move-ment in Ghana?, MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, 2008.
[20] Tuteja, A., Share Prices and acroeconomic Variables in India:An Approach to Investigate the Rela-tionship Between Stock Markets and Economic Growth, Journal of Management Research, 2008; 8(3): 136-146.
[21] Kyereboah‐Coleman, A., Agyire‐Tettey, K.F., Impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock market performance: The case of the Ghana Stock Exchange, Journal of Risk Finance, 2008; 9(4): 365-378. doi: 10.1108/15265940810895025
[22] Asness, C.S., Moskowitz, T.J., Pedersen, L.H., Value and momentum everywhere. J. Financ.
2013; 68(3): 929-985. doi: 10.1111/jofi.12021
[23] Azeez, A. & Yonezawa, Y., Macroeconomic factors and the empirical content of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the Japanese stock market. Japan and the World Economy, 2006; 18(4): 568-591. doi: 10.1016/j.japwor.2005.05.001
[24] Baltzer, M., Jank, S., Smajlbegovic, E., Who trades on momentum? J. Financ. Mark. 2019; 42(2): 56-74. doi: 10.1016/j.finmar.2018.08.003
[25] Balvers, R., Wu, Y., Gilliland, E., Mean reversion across national stock markets and parametric con-trarian investment strategies. J. Financ. 2000; 55(2): 745-772. doi: 10.1111/0022-1082.00225
[26] Balvers, R., Wu, Y., Momentum and mean reversion across national equity markets. J. Empir. Financ. 2006; 13(1): 24-48. doi: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2005.05.001
[27] Bartolomeodi, G, R., Lorenza, T, M., Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison. 2006; doi: 10.1080/00036840903357447
[28] Benkwitz, A., Lutkepohl, H., Wolters, J., Comparison of bootstrap confldence intervals for impulse responses of German monetary systems, Macroeconomic Dynamics. 2001; 43(21), 2721-2738. doi: 10.1017/S1365100501018041
[29] Boynton, W., Oppenheimer, H.R., Anomalies in stock market pricing: problems in return measure-ments. 2006; 79(5), 2617-2631. doi: 10.1086/505246
[30] Cakici, N., Fabozzi, F. J., & Tan, S., Size, value, and momentum in emerging market stock returns. Emerging Markets Review. 2013; 16(7), 46-65. doi: 10.1016/j.ememar.2013.03.001
[31] Carhart, M.M., On persistence in mutual fund performance. J. Financ. 1997; 52(1), 57-82. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x
[32] Chang, H., Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model, Economic Modelling. 2009; 26(6), 1283-1299. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2009.06.003
[33] Chou, P.-H., Wei, K.C.J., Chung, H., Sources of contrarian profits in the Japanese stock market. J. Empir. Financ. 2007; 14(2), 261-286. doi: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2006.07.003
[34] Cooper, M.J., Gutierrez J.R.C., Hameed, A., Market states and momentum. J. Financ. 2004; 59(3), 1345-1365. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00665.x
[35] Da, Z., Gurun, U.G., Warachka, M., Frog in the pan: continuous information and momentum. Rev. Financ. Stud. 2014; 27(7), 2171-2218. doi: 10.2469/dig.v45.n3.17
[36] Daisy, L,Y., Iscan, T, B., Xu, K., The Impact of monetary Policy Shocks on Stock Prices : Evidence from Canada and the United States, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014; N029, pp: 876-896. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.03.008
[37] Deaves, R., Miu, P., Refining Momentum strategies by conditioning on prior long-term returns: Cana-dian evidence. Can. J. Adm. Sci. 2007; 24(2), 135-145. doi: 10.1002/cjas.11
[38] Engsted, T., & Tanggaard, C., The relation between asset returns and inflation at short and long hori-zons. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money. 2002; 12(2), 101-118. doi: 10.1016/S1042-4431(01)00052-X
[39] Harvey, C.R., Liu, Y., Zhu, H., and the cross-section of expected returns. Rev. Financ. Stud. and the cross-section of expected returns. 2016; 29(1), 5-68.
[40] Giuliodori, M., Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries. Scot. J. Polit. Economy. 2005; 52(4), 519-543.
[41] Fama, E, F., French, K, R., Dissecting Anomalies with a Five-Factor Model. Fama-MillerWorkingPaper, AvailableatSSRN. 2015; doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2503174.
[42] Heston, S.L., Sadka, R., Seasonality in the cross-section of stock returns. J. Financ. Econ. 2008; 87(3), 418-445. doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.02.003.
[43] Hilde, B, C., Kai, L., Identifying the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market, Journal of Monetary Economics. 2013; 56(8), 275-282. doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.12.001.
[44] Humpe, A., Macmillan, P., Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market move-ments? A comparison of the US and Japan. Applied Financial Economics. 2006; 19(2), 111-119. doi: 10.1080/09603100701748956.
[45] Ioanidis, Ch., Kontonikas, A., The Impact of monetary policy on stock prices. journal of policy mod-eling. 2007; 26(5), 6-15. doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.06.015
[46] Jegadeesh, N., Titman, S., Momentum. Annu. Rev. Finan. Econ. 2011; 3(15), 493-509.
[47] Jegadeesh, N., Titman, S., Profitability of momentum strategies: an evaluation of alternative explana-tions. J. Financ. 2001; 56(2), 699-720. doi: 10.1111/0022-1082.00342.
[48] Jegadeesh, N., Evidence of predictable behavior of security returns. J. Financ. 1990; 45(3), 881-898. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb05110.x.
[49] Kim, D., Roh, T, Y., Min, B, K., & Byun, S, J., Time-varying expected momentum profits. Journal of Banking & Finance. 2014; 49(5), 191-215.
[50] Kurov, A., Investor sentiment the stock market’s reaction to monetary policy, journal of Banking & Finance. 2014; 34(7), 139-149. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.07.010.
[51] Lesmond, D.A., Schill, M.J., Zhou, C., The illusory nature of momentum profits. J. Financ. Econ. 2004; 71(15), 349-380. doi: 10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00206-X
[52] Liu, M., Shrestha, K.M., Analysis of the long‐term relationship between macro‐economic variables and the Chinese stock market using heteroscedastic cointegration, Managerial Finance. 2008; 34(11), 744-755. doi: 10.1108/03074350810900479.
[53] Mazumdar,K., Zhang, D., Guo, Y., Portfolio selection and unsystematic risk optimisation using swarm intelligence, Journal of Banking and Financial Technology. 2020; doi: 10.1007/s42786-019-00013-x
[54] Morelli, D., Momentum profits and conditionaltime-varying systematic risk. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money. 2014; 29(15), 242-255. doi: 10.1016/j.intfin.2013.11.007.
[55] Wu, Y., & Wang, J., Risk adjustment and momentum sources. Journal of Banking & Finance. 2011; 35(11), 1427-1435. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.10.021.
[56] Mirjalilia, S., Mirjalilib, S. M., Lewis,A., Grey Wolf Optimizer, Advances in Engineering Software Elsevier. 2014; 69(25), 46-61. doi: 10.1016/j.advengsoft.2013.12.007.
[57] Safari, A., Ashna, M., Proposing an Optimal model for stock selection based on the momentum trad-ing strategy. Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, 2019; 12(41): 143-153.
[58] Fadaie Nejad, M. E., Farahani, R., Mhoseynabadi, M., Evaluation of the Profitability of Momentum and Reversal Strategies of Industry in the Capital Market of Iran. Journal of Asset Management and Fi-nancing, 2021; 9(1): 93-112. doi: 10.22108/amf.2020.115998.1401, (in Persian).
[59] Khani, A., Betsheken, M., Athari, B., Performance Evaluation of momentum strategy managed in Teh-ran Stock Exchange, Financial Management Strategy, 2019; 8(4): 23-50 (in Persian).
[60] Samavi, M. E., Aghakochki, M., Hosni, A., Investigating the preference of momentum and reverse strategies based on overreaction and underreaction of investors, the second international conference on new challenges and solutions in industrial engineering, management and accounting, Damghan, Iran, 2021, (in Persian).