An analysis of the key drivers of the resilience of coastal cities
Subject Areas : Urban planning
1 - Assistant Professor, Department of Architecture and Art, , Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran
Keywords: "Futuristic", "Group", "Focal", "Coastal", "resilience",
Abstract :
The concept of resilience in urban management discourse, particularly concerning nature-based strategies, has taken root and is widely regarded as a crucial feature of coastal systems, increasingly highlighted in development policies. This research follows an analytical-exploratory approach, employing focus group interviews and the Delphi method within the realm of qualitative studies.In the first phase, concepts related to the resilience of coastal cities were identified through five focus group interviews using qualitative thematic analysis. The interviews were processed through selective, axial, and open coding. This process was conducted using MAXQDA 2020 qualitative analysis software. Subsequently, the identified themes were presented to 35 experts for scoring. Using foresight analysis and the MICMAC software, key drivers were identified.Findings reveal that, in the initial phase, 45 open codes, 15 axial codes, and 5 selective codes were extracted. The selective codes, identified as key drivers, were presented to experts, and the results demonstrated that institutional, economic, and social drivers are the most influential factors in the resilience of coastal cities.Therefore, any policy-making and planning aimed at enhancing coastal resilience should consider these factors. Institutional drivers include a proper legal framework, risk management, hazard policy-making and governance, risk assessment and opportunities, access to information banks, networking, NGOs, development policies, stakeholder engagement, emergency responses, the use of modern technologies, integrated management, good urban governance, and resource mobilization.Social drivers encompass social capital, healthcare services, social cohesion, neighborhood collaborations, citizen participation, food security, essential services, research and development, social and cultural networking, education for citizens and managers, and lifestyle factors. Additionally, economic drivers include social capital, healthcare services, social cohesion, neighborhood collaborations, citizen participation, food security, essential services, research and development, social and cultural networking, education for citizens and managers, and lifestyle factors.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Coastal communities and ecosystems face a number of threats due to climate change and other environmental stressors. A coastal zone is an area where land and sea connect to each other. The development and use of resources of coastal areas is important for the integration of land and sea, the development of maritime economy and the establishment of a strong maritime government. Coastal areas are also exposed to various natural and human ecological pressures. Average global hurricane intensity appears to have increased between 2 and 11 percent by 2100 due to greenhouse warming, and storm surges are likely to increase as sea levels rise. Coastal ecosystems are also susceptible to the impacts of climate change, particularly sea level rise, ocean warming, and ocean acidification. Coastal protection strategies adopted by at-risk cities with large populations have mainly focused on protecting assets and human settlements with hard coastal defense structures. Despite these conditions, coastal cities in developing countries have to solve two types of problems, namely effective timely response to disasters and degradation of the coastal ecosystem, which has led to poor protection of coastal communities.
Methodology
The current applied-developmental research is in the category of qualitative research and its approach is analytical-exploratory and it was done with qualitative method. Data collection has been achieved through holding five focus groups. In fact, focus group meetings have been used to identify factors affecting the future resilience of coastal cities. At this stage, documentary studies have also been used to enrich the findings. Of course, the researcher presented the findings of the documentation stage in the meetings and the participants reached a consensus regarding the adequacy of the materials. In this regard, the qualitative theme analysis method has been used to extract drivers and selective, central and selective coding. In the next stage, to score the factors and extract the key drivers, 35 experts were selected in a targeted way to complete the scoring process of the matrix of mutual effects based on the degree of influence and effectiveness with the numbers zero to three. The findings of these questionnaires were entered into the Mic Mac software.
Results and discussion
This study aims to identify the key drivers influencing the resilience of coastal cities. Focus group discussions led to the identification of 45 primary factors, which were refined to five core drivers: social, economic, institutional, physical, and environmental. Analysis using MICMAC software highlighted institutional, social, and economic drivers as the most influential.Institutional resilience requires governance based on the rule of law, justice, integrated management, and citizen participation. Municipal governments should establish networks, develop information databases, and share crisis management knowledge. Social resilience is strengthened by community cohesion, social capital, healthcare access, and education.Economically, financial support during crises, investment in specialized sectors, and urban regeneration are crucial. Key factors include sustainable employment, economic transparency, and corruption control. Physical and environmental variables also play a role in strengthening coastal resilience.
Conclusion
Society's awareness of upcoming risks in coastal areas plays a significant role in the sustainable management of urban risks and enables societies to reduce negative effects on human health, environment and economy. Since all societies will face risks, the issue of resilience is important. Resilience prevents a short-term hazardous event from turning into a long-term community-wide disaster. While most communities prepare effectively to respond to emergencies, many are inadequately prepared to recover afterward. Therefore, the topic of resilience is considered important, especially in coastal areas and in the direction of environmental sustainability.
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