Analysis of trend and heterogeneity of hydroclimatic variables in Tajen watershed

Subject Areas : River Basin Environment

sajad sadeghi ¹ (PhD. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran. )
Bahram Saghafian ² (Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. * (Corresponding Author))
mohsen Najarchi ³ (PhD. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran. )

Received: 2021-01-14 Accepted : 2021-09-01 Published : 2024-05-21

Keywords: Tajan watershed, trend and homogeneity investigation, climatic variables, runoff, soil and water assessment model (SWAT).,

Abstract :

Background and Objective: In Iran, due to warming and severe precipitation variation along with development in recent decades, more attention should be paid to comprehend the role of climatic factors in water resources. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the trend and heterogeneity of the climatic variables as well as their impact on hydrological processes. Material and Methodology The stations with long-term data were analyzed for trend analysis (Mann-Kendall tests) and homogeneity (Pettitt test) of climatic variables in a 30-year statistical period (1984-2014). The impacts of climatic variables on the basin's runoff were investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for two climatic time periods (1984-2001 and 2001-2014). Findings: The homogeneity investigation in the stations demonstrated that only in Soleiman Tangeh Station, the year 1998 was determined as the turning point. This case was not observed in other stations. Regarding the investigation of temperature associated with Gharakhil station, the turning point was obtained in 1997 and the trend was increasing and meaningful. The results of the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe achieved from the calibration and validation of the SWAT were quite satisfactory. Discussion and Conclusion: In general, climate change over the past three decades has led to decline in the runoff of the basin, which may be partly due to the increased evapotranspiration as a result of increased temperature or reduced precipitation in most months. The present study attempts to indicate the significance of climate change and its consequences in the water resource management of the Tajan basin.

References:

1. D. Pumo, E., Arnone, A., Francipane, D., Caracciolo, L.V., Noto. 2017. a Potential implications of climate change and urbanization on watershed hydrology. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 554 , pp.80–99
2. Mostafa Jafari. 2008. Investigating and analyzing the factors of climate change during the last fifty years in the forests of the Caspian region. Journal of Iranian Forest and Poplar Research, 90-100. Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 314-326
3. Malekian, A., Kazemzadeh, M. 2016. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Regional Trends and Shift Changes of Autocorrelated Temperature Series in Urmia Lake Basin. Water Resour Manage, (2016)Vol. 30, pp.785–803
4. Tabari1, H., A.A. Sabziparvar and S. Marofi. 2009. Investigating trends of annual meteorological parameters in cold andwarmclimates of Iran. Agricultural researchwater, soil, plant, Vol. 8(1), pp. 161-174.
5. Pirnia, A., M. Habibnejad, R., and Solaimani, K. 2015. Investigation of precipitation and temperature changes in Caspian Sea southern coasts and its comparison with changes in northern hemisphere and global scales. Journal of Watershed Management Research, Vol.6(11), pp.163-171.
6. M. Khoshravesh, M., Mirnaseri, M., and pesarakloo , M., 2017. Change Detection of Precipitation Trend of Northern Part of Iran using Mann-Kandal non-parametric test .Watershed Management Research, Vol.8, pp231-242
7. Rezaei Zaman, M., Morid, S., Delava.r M. 2016 Evaluating climate adaptation strategies on agricultural production in the Siminehrud catchment and inflow into Lake Urmia, Iran using SWAT within an OECD framework . Agricultural Systems, Vol.147 , pp. 98–110
8. Jamil A.A., Edson, C., Wendland. 2018. Land use and climate change impacts on runoff and soil erosion at the hillslope scale in the Brazilian Cerrado. Science of the Total Environment,Vol. 622–623, pp.140–151.
9. Williamson1, D., Majule, A., Delalande, M., Mwakisung, B., .2014. A potential feedback between landuse and climate in the Rungwe tropical highland stresses a critical environmental research challenge. Environmental Sustainability, Vol.6, pp.116–122.
10. Zhang, Y., Xia, Y., Yu, J., Randall, M. 2018. Simulation and assessment of urbanization impacts on runoff metrics: insights from landuse changes. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 560, pp 247-258.
11. Shereif, H., Thian, Y. 2018. mpact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions Science of The Total Environment, Vol 633, pp. 1329-1344.
12. Li, X., Zhang, Y., Guo, F. 2018. Predicting the effect of land use and climate change on stream macroinvertebrates based on the linkage between structural equation modeling and bayesian network. Ecological Indicators, Vol 85, pp 820-831.
13. Fathian, F., Morid, M., Kahya, E. 2014. Identification of trends in hydrological and climatic variables in Urmia Lake basin, Iran. Theor Appl Climatol, Vol. 14 pp.1120-40.
14. Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J. I., Lorente, A., Seeger, M., & García-Ruiz, J. M. 2003. Assessing the effect of climate oscillations and land-use changes on streamflow in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, Vol. 32(4), pp.283-286.
15. Liu, J., Zhang, Q., Singh, V . 2017. Contribution of multiple climatic variables and human activities to streamflow changes across. China Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 545 , pp.145–162.
16. Zhang, L., Karthikeyan, R., Zhongke Bai, R., Srinivasan, R. 2017. Analysis of streamflow responses to climate variability and land use change in the Loess Plateau region of China. Catena, Vol.154 , pp. 1–11.
17. Mohammadi, J., Shataee, S., 2010. Possibility investigation of tree diversity mapping using Landsat ETMþ data in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran. Remote Sensing of Environment, vol.114, pp. 1504–1512.
18. Neitsch, S.L., Arnold, J.G., Kiniry, J.R.,. 2011. Soil and water assessment tool theoretical document (version 2009), Texas water resource institute technical report.
19. Aparicioa, J., Jimeno- S ́aeza, P., L ́opez-Ballesteros, A. 2021. Impacts of swat weather generator statistics from high-resolution datasets on monthly streamflow simulation over Peninsular Spain . Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol. 35, 100826.
20. Kazemzadeh, MV., Malekian, A., Moghaddamnia, M .2017. Analysis of sudden changes and heterogeneity of hydroclimatic variables. Journal of Echo Hydrology, Vol.4) 1(, pp. 163-175.
21. Maryanaji, Z., S. Marofi and H. Abasi. 2008. Detection rate variation and its relationship with meteorological parameters in the field of hamadan by using Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. The third conference of Iran water resourcesmanagement, Tabriz University, Iran.
22. Pirnia, A., M. Habibnejad Roshan and K. Solaimani. 2015. Investigation of precipitation and temperature changes in Caspian Sea southern coasts and its comparison with changes in northern hemisphere and global scales. Journal of Watershed Management Research, Vol. 6(11), pp. 90-100.
23. Fathian F, Morid M, Kahya E. Identification of trends in hydrological and climatic variables in Urmia Lake basin, Iran. Theor Appl Climatol. 2014; 14; 1120-40.
24. Sen P K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1968; 39; 1379 –1389.
25. Li, CH., Fang, H. 2021. Assessment of climate change impacts on the streamflow for the Mun River in the Mekong Basin, Southeast Asia: Using SWAT model‏, vol 201, pp. 90-100.
26. Moriasi, D N., Arnold, J.G., Van Liew, M W., et al. 2007. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the ASABE, Vol.50(3), pp. 885–900.
27. Abbaspour, K.C., Yang, J., Maximov, I., Siber, R., Bogner, K., Mieleitner, J., Zobrist, J. and Srinivasan, R. 2007. Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 333, pp.413-430.
28. Azimi M, Heshmati G A, Farahpour M, et al. 2013. Modeling the impact of rangeland management on forage production of sagebrush species in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Ecological Modelling, Vol. 250, pp.1–14.
29. Abghari, H., Tabari, H., Hosseinzadeh, P. 2013. River flow trends in the west of Iran during the past 40 years: Impact of precipitation variability. Global and Planetary Change, Vol.101. pp. 52–60