Projection of Quantitative Changes in Groundwater of Ardabil Plain under the Climatic Stresses Based on Precipitation and Runoff

Subject Areas : Farm water management with the aim of improving irrigation management indicators

Kurosh  Azad Jelodarlu ¹ (1- Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran)
Amin  Sadeqi ² (Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran)

Received: 2020-12-27 Accepted : 2021-05-16 Published : 2021-07-23

Keywords: Climate Change, Projection, Ardabil plain, Water resources,

Abstract :

In this study, quantitative changes of groundwater resources were projected in Ardabil plain using HadGEM2-ES climatic output and Eureqa artificial intelligence tools for the three future periods (1418-1400, 1438-1420 and 1440-1458) under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results showed that the largest decrease in discharge in summer will be 27%, while the increase in surface runoff in winter is expected to be 12%. The reason for this is the continuation of global warming, which will lead to faster melting of winter snow. The results of the models indicated a decrease in groundwater level in all months of the year in future periods, which has been significant in all periods-scenarios. The groundwater level will decrease between, on average, 1.2m to 3.2m. Reduction rainfall and discharge in the summer - which coincides with the growing season - will also intensify the increase in groundwater harvesting. This will exacerbate the water crisis in the region.

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