The analysis and forecasting of climatic fluctuation of khorasan
Subject Areas : Geopolitic
1 - ندارد
Keywords: Markov chain, Khorasan province, Forecasting,
Abstract :
Concerning the drought being experienced recently and its effect on planning, and economical, agricultural fields and the demands on predicting and applying different models for decision making, Markov Chains model was applied in Khorasan at Mashhad , Torbat Heydarieh , Birjand and Bojnord stations . This model studies the phenomena which depend on the previous ones. Here, we have studied the possibility of the occurrence of dry and wet days ( wetness threshold of 0.1 mm) , the cold days ( below ) and warm days ( above 25C) . Finally , two analyses were done using Markov Chains model. Also, for predicting 1 to 10 day periods , Xn=Pn-1 × q from statistical distribution was applied and the data was presented in the form of equiprobable maps . To analyze the provided data and maps , SPSS and SURFER softwares were applied .
