Explanation and Prediction of Earthquake: The Necessity of Simultaneous Application of Nomothetic and Idiographic Approaches

Subject Areas : Philosophy

Mirhamid Hashemi  Lashenlo ¹ (PhD in Philosophy of Science, Department of Law, Theology & Political Sciences, Tehran Branch of Science & Research, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)
Arash  Mousavi ² (Assistant Professor, National Research Institute for Science Policy, Tehran, Iran)

Received: 2021-03-19 Accepted : 2021-03-19 Published : 2021-02-19

Keywords: Seismology, Wilhelm Windelband, Nomothetic Approach, Idiographic Approach,

Abstract :

Explaining and predicting earthquakes has always been a human issue throughout history. Despite advances in seismology, the science has not yet been successful in efficiently predicting earthquakes, that is, in short time and space scales. Tectonic plate theory, as a successful theory for explaining earthquakes in a “general” form, is compatible with both explanatory approaches in the philosophy of science, that is, argumentative and causal. However, to predict earthquakes efficiently and locally, we seem to need a different approach to this science. Wilhelm Windelband has made the distinction between the nomothetic sciences and idiographic sciences. This distinction has inspired empirical sciences such as medicine and psychology. In this paper, we show that in seismology, like medicine and psychology, to achieve effective forecasting, these two approaches can be used simultaneously, and we suggest, based on ethical interests and that seismology is a science that deals with the lives of millions of people. In addition to the nomothetic approach, it is necessary for experts in this field to use an idiographic approach so that they can predict the desired earthquake in a short time and place.