Forecasting the Price of Natural Gas Using Developed Methods Based on Grays and Fractals

Subject Areas : Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis

Saeed Emami Koupaee ¹ , Shiva Zamani ² , A. Reza Heidarzadeh Hanzaee ³ , M. Reza Shahnazari ⁴

1 - MSc. Student, Faculty of Financial Management, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Associate Professor, Faculty of Economy and Management, Sharif University, Tehran-Iran
3 - Assistant Prof. Department of Financial Management, Tehran North Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran-Iran
4 - Associate Professor, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, K. N.Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2018-05-21 Accepted : 2019-01-23 Published : 2020-06-21

Keywords: Natural gas, Price Forecasting, Grey Method, Fractal, Accumulation,

Abstract :

The importance of predicting the price of energy carriers for the development of the economy and industry today is not overlooked. Meanwhile, predicting natural gas prices as one of the most important carriers of energy and an important role in providing clean energy can be considered as an important tool in industrial development decision making. In this paper, we have investigated the nonlinear behavior of natural gas prices in a multi-year period, as well we have introduced methods for the development and synthesis of fractalization (FDGM) has been used to predict the price of natural gas. The results of the price forecast based on the introduced methods, Indicates the effectiveness of these methods. At the same time, given the fractal nature of the price of natural gas in the period under review, the results show that the forecast error using the FDGM method is always below 7%. And very good results were obtained using combination fractional and fractional methods.

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