Forecasting of Banks Liquidity resources

Subject Areas : Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis

Dr.Ahmad  Yazdanpanah ¹ (ندارد)
Zahra  Abbasi ² (نویسنده مسئول و طرف مکاتبه)

Received: 2009-07-06 Accepted : 2009-09-11 Published : 2009-06-22

Keywords: Liquidity Forecasting, Bank, ARIMA,

Abstract :

Liquidity management is one of the most important functions of financialmanagement in economic firms. In the case of financial and creditinstitutions especially banks, it has a more important role. Banks requireto maintain a portion of their assets in the form of cash in order to be ableto respond to their customer’s needs. However, it has an opportunity costfor the bank. In other words, keeping cash in current accounts ormaintaining it by Central Bank or other banks decreases the risk of bankliquidity while it deprives banks of investment opportunities and declinesthe bank returns.In this study, therefore, we tried to design a model in order to forecast thecash amounts of EN-Bank kept in current accounts or maintained byCentral Bank or other banks which is totally called “Bank Liquidity”.Thus, forecast was done based on input cash flow during a specificperiod. Then by comparing this with the goals and strategies of the bank,it has been planned to eliminate the budget deficit or surplus consumptionin order to reach the equilibrium at the end of the period. In this method,current accounts, interbank accounts and funds are considered asliquidity. ARIMA and Minitab software are used in order to estimate themodel.At the end, forecast was done for the next 52 weeks by this model. As aresult, it was observed that bank will be faced surplus liquidity