Application of MPT & PMPT in Evaluation of Risk ( Financial-Marketing Approach to Iran Cement Industry )

Subject Areas : Futurology

H. R. Vakilifard ¹ , J. Barzigar ²

1 - ندارد
2 - نویسنده مسئول یا طرف مکاتبه

Received: 2008-10-30 Accepted : 2009-01-01 Published : 2010-06-22

Keywords: Modern Portfolio Theory ( MPT , Post-Modern Portfolio Theory (, Systematic&#x0D, &#x0D, Risk, Unsystematic Risk, Undesired Risk, Financial-Marketing Approach,

Abstract :

According to Modern Portfolio Theory , the total risk dividend into two types : uncontrollable risk( systematic risk ) and controllable risk ( unsystematic risk ) . therefore , determining of systematicrisk and comparing it with unsystematic risk can assist cement Co. managers & shareholders .In the reality word , shareholders decide about financial assets based of post modern portfolio theory(PMPT) , so comparing of different risks through undesirable risk creates realler results. So, in thisresearch , In the first process , is done the quantitative evaluation of cement risks with the financialapproach and in the result of it cleared that in the research time territory , the undesirable risk of thecement co. portfolio, in every years, was more than the risk of the market co. portfolio and alsorecognized that unsystematic risk of the cement companies is more than their systematic risk .So , the most of the risk that affecting the cement co. returns is rise of the internal factors , such as :the company management or cement industry and the external factors , such as : market factor has hadthe low affect on the risk of the cement co. portfolio returns and the reason of it is that the allgovernments is accepted the cement supply in every conditions and so , the cement industrial is noteffected of environmental changes .In the second process , is done the qualitative evaluation (identifying & rating) of Cement risks withthe marketing approach .For identifying and rating the existing risks in the cement industrial through the questionary andopinion assessment , is analyzed replies and the below results is obtained :The change in foreign exchange , inflation , governmental annoyer regulations , no foreign investment, natural unexpected events , political occurrences are effective in systematic risk in cement companiesand determined that The cheapness of the cement sale price & the governmental control on prices , thelack of the skill workers , the lack of sufficient liquidity , the lack of innovation and competition ,the hard to return of projects and the same pricing for the same cement formula with different qualities, unstability in issuance of cement exporting licences , unsafe activity of broker network in cementdistributions , weariness of equipments & installations , using of present valence in minimum of scale ,the cement smuggle and the cement import are effective in unsystematic risk of cement companies .also , The cheapness of the cement sale price & the governmental control on prices , the lack of theskill workers , the lack of sufficient liquidity , the lack of innovation and competition , the hard toreturn of projects and so on , are the most serious factors in increasing risk in cement corporations .Also, privatising and private management , foreign investment , private management with governmentsupervision and export , are the most serious factors in decreasing risk in cement corporations .