Financial Risk Analysis of CHP Systems under Uncertainty Conditions

Subject Areas : Futurology

A.  Behbahaninia, ¹ (نویسنده مسئول یا طرف مکاتبه)
M.  Amidpoor ² (ندارد)
B.  Tasaloti ³ (ندارد)
P.  Behbahaninia ⁴ (ندارد)

Received: 2009-01-04 Accepted : 2009-02-17 Published : 2010-06-22

Keywords: CHP, Cogeneration, Monte Carlo, Risk Analysis, Payback Period,

Abstract :

Combined Heat and power technologies are the most common methods in energy efficiencyenhancement. Economic feasibility of such systems is complex because of uncertainties in inputparameters. In this research Monte Carlo method has been used in investment risk analysis. Usingelectricity and energy price statistics of last years, their probability distributions were calculated andtheir correlations were surveyed.In this work two different strategies were applied. First strategy is based on current prices and thesecond is based on cost price and without subsidies. In both of them price difference exerted based onprobability distributions that has been calculated using differential yearly prices of last years.Uncertainties of input parameters propagated end exerted through the model using Monte CarloMethod and the results were gotten in the form of payback period, NPV and IRR probabilitydistributions. The result showed that economy of cogeneration plans will improve with increasing ofenergy prices. Also regular increasing in energy prices can guarantee financial gain of energy savingplans