The Future Image of the Management System of Government Organizations with a Layered Analysis Approach (CLA)
Subject Areas : Futurology
Reza Bid Abadie Amin
1
,
kumars ahmadie
2
,
Adel Salavati
3
1 - PhD Student of Management Department, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University,
2 - Assistant Professor of Management Department, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran
3 - Assistant Professor of Management Department, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran
Keywords: management system, government organizations, layered analysis,
Abstract :
The increasing complexity and uncertainty in the various processes of human societies have made it very difficult to identify influential future events by generalizations to the past. Instead of recognizing a state of the future, futures research studies alternative futures and offers future-oriented strategies for building the future. This study aimed to explain the future image of the management system of government organizations and the procedures to promote this system in the four layers of Litany, social, discourse, and metaphor based on the method of Causal Layered Analysis. Innovations in this approach make it possible to move from the present to the future by identifying the root causes of a phenomenon in four layers. Moreover, after identifying and explaining the factors affecting the future of a phenomenon, we are enabled to formulate strategies for taking measures and moving from the future to the present. After reviewing the research literature and forming a panel of experts in four stages with 12 experts, we identified the future image of the management system in four layers. Then, we presented five strategies at the level of metaphors, seven strategies at the level of discourses, 21 strategies at the level of systems, and 16 strategies at the level of Litany that can be used to develop and implement the necessary policies to improve the management of government organizations.
