Cluster Analysis of Iran's Position in the World and Future Trends Based on Good Governance Components
Subject Areas : Futurology
Mona Ahani
1
,
Morteza Mosakhani
2
,
Reza Najafbeigi
3
,
Mohammad Ali Afsharkazemi
4
1 - Ph. D. Student of Public Management, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch. Tehran, Iran
2 - Perfessor in Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch. Tehran, Iran
3 - Perfessor in Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch. Tehran, Iran
4 - Associate Professor in Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch. Tehran, Iran
Keywords: World Bank, Clustering, Time series analysis, Good governance, Prediction,
Abstract :
The Study of good governance and the quality of government institutions is a debate that began in the 90's. Good governance, which consists of six components: control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence, regulatory quality, rule of law, voice and accountability, is a model for development. In this study, the World Bank's assessments and statistics on the six-fold good governance indicators published each year, were used to survey 186 countries worldwide. The aims of this research were studying the status of countries based on good governance and determining the status of Iran among other countries, using clustering technique; And analyzing the trend of Iran's position in the 2021 horizons using time series analysis. Using the clustering method of the countries of the world, based on the good governance and the frequent clustering of Iran with other countries, they were separated. Then, from the time series method using of the exponential smoothing based on the ARIMA's method was investigate to predict the six's good governance indicators and the situation of the country in the next five years. Findings of the research show that in the 2021 horizons, the accountability index will be problematic in the country and the rule of law and control of corruption ratios will remain almost unchanged, and, on the other hand, the rest of the indicators show a slight improvement.
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