Analyzing the Effect of Good Governance and Uncertainty in Monetary Policies on Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Inflation in Iran
Translator
Subject Areas : Bi-quarterly Journal of development economics and planning
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Keywords: Good Governance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Inflation, Iran.,
Abstract :
In this sense, this research aimed to examine the effect of monetary policy uncertainty and good governance on inflation and rate fluctuations in Iran in the period from 1370 to 1401. In order to achieve the goal and since the uncertainty of the variable is invisible, it was calculated using the GARCH method and using extensive money data, and other data were also extracted from the portals of the Central Bank and the Statistics Center of Iran, as well as the World Bank. The data were used in a model using the Structural Vector AutoRegression method(SVAR), and unit root test and determining the optimal lag were performed after estimating the effects of impalse response and analysis of variance. The results showed that monetary policy uncertainty has an effect on inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, and this effect on exchange rate fluctuations is greater in terms of the central bank's high share in the foreign exchange market. It was also concluded that the good governance index is effective on exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, and this effect on inflation is more than exchange rate fluctuations, which can be due to the structure of economic activities dependent on the government in Iran and their effect on pricing.The results show that the withdrawal of the government from the structure of economic activities and the relative independence of the monetary policy maker will provide the possibility of moving towards the balance of the currency market and reducing inflation.
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