Evaluation of climate change impact on climate parameters in Tuyserkan Catchment using general circulation models

Subject Areas : Article frome a thesis

سمانه پورمحمدی ¹ , mohammadtaghi dastourani ² , alirez مساح بوانی ³ , M.H رحیمیان ⁴ , H. جعفری ⁵

1 - مرکز ملی باروری ابرها(موسسه تحقیقات آب ایران)
2 - دانشیار دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
3 - دانشیار دانشگاه تهران پردیس ابوریحان
4 - استادیار مرکز ملی تحقیقات شوری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، یزد، ایران
5 - استادیار هیدروژئولوژی، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود

Received: 2016-04-02 Accepted : 2020-01-26 Published : 2019-10-23

Keywords: Climate Change, LARS-WG, Beta probability distribution, Tuyserkan catchment,

Abstract :

Climate change impacted of the amount, timing and type of precipitation, also was impacted on water quality, increased droughts, increased demand for water, changes in the management of water resources, as well as sea level rise and its complications. Climate change also had great influence on the temperature changes so that maximum and minimum values and extreme temperature. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature use with 15 of atmospheric general circulation model under two scenarios A1B and B1 in the period 2039-2011. For this purpose, the use of beta statistical distribution of rainfall changes, minimum and maximum temperatures were calculated from 15 general circulation model, the probability of 20, 50 and 80 percent, respectively. The results showed that the probability of 20 to 80 percent under both scenarios A1B and B1 minimum and maximum temperatures are rising and the rain is falling. The minimum and maximum temperatures under A1B increased more than B1 scenario and precipitation reduced under B1 more than A1B scenario. The results showed that 19 to 22% decrease in precipitation and minimum temperature of 13 to 20% and a maximum temperature of 2.4 to 6.4 percent increase compared to baseline the Tuyserkan catchment.

References:

1)       Ansari, S. 2011.Effects of climate change on surface and underground water balance during the coming, Master Thesis Civil Engineering Water, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran(In Persian).

2)       Dastorani, MT. Poormohammadi. S. Masah Bavani. AR and Rahimian. MH, 2013Evaluation of evapotranspiration Yazd station under uncertainty Glkhanh‌Ay emissions scenarios and models to estimate evapotranspiration, , Journal of Watershed Management, University of Sari.(In Persian)

3)       Dastorani M. T., Massah Bavani A.R.,Poormohammadi, S, Rahimian M. H., 2011, Assessment of potential climate change impacts on drought indicators (Case study: RDI and SPI in Yazd station, Iran), DEesert journal

4)       Burns, D., Klaus, J. and Mchale, M. 2007. Recent climate trends and implications for water resources in theCatskill Mountain region, NEW YORK, USA. Journal of Hydrology, 336: 155-17.

5)       Denis Cohen, Mark Person, Ronnie Daannen, Sharon Locke, Dave Dahlstrom, Victor Zabielski, Thomas C. Winter, Donald O. Rosenberry, Herb Wright, Emi Ito, John L. Nieber, William J. Gutowski Jr,2006 Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change Journal of Hydrology, Volume 320, Issues 3–4, 15 April 2006, Pages 484-500.

6)       Poormohammadi, S. and Malekinezhad, 2013,Climatic classification of homogeneous areas affected by climate change using the linear momentum, Journal of Watershed Management, University of Sari.(In Persian)

7)       Green Timothy R., Makoto Taniguchi, Henk Kooi, Jason J. Gurdak, Diana M. Allen, Kevin M. Hiscock, Holger Treidel, 2011, Alice AurBeneath the surface of global change: Impacts of climate change on groundwater , Journal of Hydrology, Volume 405, Issues 3–4,  Pages 532-560.

8)       Jackson Christopher R., Rakia Meister, Christel Prudhomme,2011, Modelling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK Chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections ,Journal of Hydrology, Volume 399, Issues 1–2, 8 March 2011, Pages 12-28

9)       Jung, II.W. and Chang, H. (2010). Assessment of future runoff trends under multiple climate change scenarios in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. Hydrological processes. 25: 258-277.

10)   komozepN Temba, Sang-Ok Chung, The effects of climate change on the water resources of the Geumho River Basin, Republic of Korea , 2014, Journal of Hydro-environment Research,Volume 8, Issue 4, December 2014, Pages 358–366.

11)   Hugo A Loáiciga,(2001), Residence time, groundwater age, and solute output in steady-state groundwater systems,Advances in Water Resources, Volume 27, Issue 7, July 2004, Pages 681-688.

12)   Pascal Goderniaux, Serge Brouyère, Hayley J. Fowler, Stephen Blenkinsop, René Therrien, Philippe Orban, Alain Dassargues, 2009,Large scale surface–subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 373, Issues 1–2, 30 June 2009, Pages 122-138.

13)   Samuel Kusangaya, Michele L. Warburton, Emma Archer van Garderen, Graham P.W. Jewitt, 2013, Impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa: A review study of Vernonia, Oregon, USA, Volume 46,Applied Geography, January 2014, Pages 137–146.

14)   Zhang, X.C. and Nearing, M.A. 2005. Impact of climate change on soil erosion, runoff and wheat productivity in central Oklahama. Catena, 61: 185-195.

Abayazid Hala,Ibrahim Al-Shinnawy,2012, Coastal Lake Sustainability: Threats And Opportunities With Climate Change , Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering