The Effects of Bread Subsidy Elimination on Changes in Import Dependency Ratio and Food Security

Subject Areas : Agricultural Economics Research

elham soflaie shahrbabak ¹ (کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.)
Seyed Habibollah Mosavi ² (استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.)
Seyed Abolghasem Mortazavi ³ (استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.)

Received: 2017-01-16 Accepted : 2018-07-18 Published : 2018-09-23

Keywords: Food Security, Computable general equilibrium model, Keywords: Bread subsidy elimination, the rate of import dependence,

Abstract :

bread as a basic commodity, had a significant contribution to food security of urban and rural households. So explaining changes in bread price in Iran, is among the major issues for economists in the field of food security. the study aimed to analyze the food security situation in Iran was designed along with the elimination of bread subsidy. For this purpose, first bread was separated from the food and beverage section in social accounting matrix. Then, several bread subsidy elimination scenarios in the short and long terms were considered and resolved within the framework of computable general equilibrium (CGE). In the final step, the food security situation was discussed by using the import dependency ratio (IDR) index. Results showed that changes in the production, import and export will have a decreasing trend in the short and long terms. Also bread subsidy elimination in the long term will provide more food security through imports. In addition, it was observed that by applying the policy, changes in the dependency ratio on imports will increase.

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