Analysis of Factors Influencing Intra-Regional Migration to Isfahan County with Reference to the Impact of Climate Change

Subject Areas :

Vahide Ebrahimnia ¹ , Ali Aslani ²

1 - Assistant Professor, Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Design, Shahid Beheshti University
2 - Master of Regional Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Iran

Received: 2024-07-01 Accepted : 2024-07-22 Published : 2024-08-21

Keywords: Intra-regional migration, Climate change, Remote sensing, Isfahan province,

Abstract :

Since the early 1950s, with the development of Isfahan County, this region has become the main destination for population movements in central Iran. These population movements within the province have also been significant and can have both positive and negative impacts on the communities of origin and destination. The aim of this research is to identify the factors influencing intra-provincial migration to Isfahan County and the impact of climate change on these population movements. The necessary information for this research was collected from two sources: library and field research. To provide the theoretical foundations and understand the study area, the library method was used. To rank the factors influencing intra-regional migration, these factors were ranked through questionnaires completed by intra-provincial migrants to Isfahan County during the period from 2006 to 2016. In this study, the Friedman test was used on the data to rank the factors and identify the main ones, and the impact of climate change was examined using linear regression in SPSS software. Additionally, climate changes at the provincial level were calculated using the weighted overlay method of climate layers in GIS software. The results showed that climate change can affect intra-provincial migrations to Isfahan County. The analysis results indicated that three main factors, including the job market, urban services (including educational, healthcare, and recreational services), and human capital (the possibility of being in a more intellectual community), directly influence intra-provincial migrations to Isfahan County. These factors have been identified as the main drivers attracting the population to this region. Additionally, climate change, which directly affects the employment of farmers and gardeners, has been identified as an influential factor in intra-provincial migrations to Isfahan County, having an indirect impact on these population movements. These climate changes have reduced job opportunities in agriculture and horticulture, pushing individuals towards Isfahan County, where more diverse job opportunities and advanced urban services are available. Reversing the migration trend is impossible solely through improving employment. However, by deeply identifying the shortcomings and deficiencies in agricultural activities and economic obstacles in rural areas, programs can be developed to reduce migration by utilizing local facilities and available resources.

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