Predictive Assessment of Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Possible Accidents; A case study: Crude Oil Base

Subject Areas : Journal of Chemical Health Risks

Jesús Luis Orozco ¹ , Julio A. Dueñas Santana ² , Luc Hens ³ , Carlo Vandecasteel ⁴ , Jo Van Caneghem ⁵ , Irina Pedroso ⁶ , Jonathan Serrano ⁷ , Yanelys Cuba Arana ⁸

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Received: 2023-02-09 Accepted : 2024-06-10 Published : 2025-06-15

Keywords: Accident, Risk, Explosion, Fire, Naphtha spill,

Abstract :

The development of facilities for the processing, storage, and transportation of oil generates a high level of risks, mainly related to fires and explosions, which might cause serious accidents with a severe impact on the population and the environment. However, the current situation related to COVID-19 has demonstrated the low risk perception of the people and authorities in some countries around the world. For this reason, many authors define predictive risk studies as a moral, legal, and economic necessity. Additionally, there are various methodologies that quantify these damages. However, there is a lack of an accurate combination of these techniques in specialized literature. This research offers a logical methodology which combines risk analysis techniques to address the quantification of economic, human, and environmental impacts due to fire and explosion accidents. Moreover, a case study in Crude Oil Base is analyzed, to estimate the possible economic, environmental, and human effects due to accidents related to fires and explosions. For this purpose, procedures and tools used internationally are carefully selected, such as the Probit equations, the Dow Fire and Explosion Index, and the ALOHA software. Finally, with this research, the high risk of continuing accidents, which lead to a major one in the Crude Oil Base, is proven. Moreover, a leak in naphtha tanks can cause serious economic, environmental, and human damage in the Crude Oil Base of the Territorial Fuel Marketing Division. Hence, the study carried out will allow the management to take measures that avoid or minimize fire and explosion risks that exist in the Crude Oil Base.

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